For whom the bellwether tolls … the pundits get it wrong again in Eden-Monaro

J ust after midnight in the Garden of Eden-Monaro, ABC election whisperer Antony Green called it on Twitter:

So Labor looks to have won the #EdenMonaro by-election. With 5000 postals included, and with the preferences counts for the Queanbeyan pre-polls reported, Labor has 51.2% with only the Narooma and Jindabyne PPVCs plus remaining postals to come.

Ten’s political editor, Peter van Onselen, Twitter, 12.19pm Saturday:

I’m predicting a narrow win today for Scott Morrison and his Liberal candidate …

A tongue in cheek nod to this failed prophecy? PVO Election night 2019:

There’s no way that Scott Morrison can win it and I’m happy to have that replayed time and time again to my shame if he does win it.

Greens leader Adam Bandt sent out a statement, Saturday, 11.57pm:

The overall winner appears too close to call. This is a good result for the Greens in a challenging context of the COVID crisis and a Melbourne Cup field of candidates … If Labor holds on, it’ll only be with the help of preferences from Green voters.

The Greens’ primary vote in Eden-Monaro, as of Sunday afternoon:

4817 (5.6 per cent of votes)

In 2019:

8715 (8.8 per cent of votes)

2020 Eden-Monaro informal vote:

5752 (6.3 per cent)

Labor senator Kristina Keneally, Sky News, Thursday:

I was at the polling booth yesterday. I heard National Party supporters giving voters the tip to vote “One National; two Labor”. John Barilaro wasn’t doing a heck of a lot of campaigning; he was sort of standing around watching what was happening.

Nationals candidate Trevor Hicks, Saturday, SBS:

I’m out here with Labor as our first preference … we’re fully behind Fiona.

NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro, Sky News, Saturday:

Anywhere from about 70 per cent will flow to the Liberal Party, there’s about a 30 per cent loss — they go anywhere, not necessarily always to Labor … I did vote for Mike Kelly last time after my Nats in Sophie Wade. But you know why? Because I vote for the man and not necessarily the party.

Thomas O’Brien, Twitter, Sunday:

Cobargo 2PP: 6.75% swing for Libs. Cobargo was scene of PM January handshake visit, which Labor used in TV ads. Libs also recorded swings towards them in Narooma … commentary about lingering bushfire anger at Govt now appears questionable

Another kiss of death from PVO? Twitter, Sunday:

Despite narrowly losing in Eden-Monaro I’m supremely confident Scott Morrison has the next election in the bag.

Regardless of the result, history has been made. Mike Bowers, Insiders, Sunday:

The seat of Eden-Monaro was an original 1901 federation seat, always held by men up to this point.

PVO takes another stab in the dark. Twitter, Saturday:

If Mathias Cormann retires later this year here’s a possible reshuffle: Simon Birmingham into finance and senate leader, Greg Hunt into trade, Linda Reynolds into health, Peter Dutton into defence, Stuart Robert into home affairs and Ben Morton enters cabinet.