Curse of Obama could ruin party for France’s Emmanuel Macron
Will the curse of Barack Obama doom French presidential frontrunner Emmanuel Macron to fall at the last hurdle?
Obama has warmly endorsed Macron in his electoral run-off against the National Front’s Marine Le Pen.
One can only imagine that Obama’s real motivation was not to help Macron but to try to recover some scintilla of electoral credibility for himself.
Surely Macron cannot lose, even with Obama’s endorsement.
But consider Obama’s power to jinx a sure thing. Obama campaigned almost as hard for Hillary Clinton to become president as he had campaigned in his own interest.
And look at the result.
Clinton went from odds-on favourite to lose by a whisker.
Even more relevant was Obama’s role in the Brexit vote.
At the stupendously stupid insistence of Britain’s David Cameron, Obama hectored and lectured and threatened the British people about why they had to vote to stay in the EU.
Obama told the Brits they would go to the back of the queue for any future trade deal if they left the EU, and the US’s priorities would rest with Brussels.
It was the dumbest call by Cameron, and the most spectacularly counter-productive intervention by Obama, as the Brits also defied the polls and voted to Brexit. People, it turns out, don’t like being bossed around by foreigners.
When Donald Trump won the US presidency, Le Pen thought it would be a great boost to her campaign. But foolish European anti-Americanism was instead the recipient of the great boost, and Trump, if anything, has diminished the force of European populism.
Europeans left and right tend to have a chip on their respective shoulders, perhaps on opposite shoulders, about the Americans.
But here Obama is giving the extreme left, which hates him as much as the extreme right does, and also the lackadaisical right, a reason to vote against Macron.
Le Pen goes into the last round trailing Macron 60-40. And French polls have a generally better record for accuracy than the US or British polls (the Australian polls are best of all, but that’s because of compulsory voting).
If Le Pen actually scores 40 per cent, it will be a kind of magnificent victory. Her National Front party has an extremist past and not the faintest schmick of a coherent economic program.
Her chances of an upset rest on three underlying factors.
One, the French social and economic system is broken.
Two, many voters feel the system needs a huge shake-up and Macron, for all his ingenue freshness, merely represents the establishment.
And three, there might be an enthusiasm gap among voters which favours her.
Her voters are absolutely passionate, Macron’s voters less so. But she had a horrible last debate, sounding shrill and desperate and unpresidential.
And she has failed to make the critical breakthrough in the polls.
Nonetheless, the reality is the same in France as it was in Britain. The leaders refuse to hear how upset voters are about failing economic opportunity and loss of control of borders.
Maybe Obama will just push them over the edge.
Will the curse of Barack Obama doom Emmanuel Macron, the seemingly unbackable frontrunner in Sunday’s second round of the French presidential election, to fall at the last hurdle?