Coronavirus: Poll position is up for grabs

Albanese v Morrison will be a no-holds-barred contest. Picture: AAP

The choices available to governments in a time of crisis such as this are limited. In proud democracies such as Australia’s, nobody likes government interference in the day-to-day decision-making of households. Now we have armed police officers enforcing social distancing, and our society acquiesces in this infringement on our basic freedom because we all know how quickly this virus can spread.

I never imagined a scenario where Australians would have to endure anything like what we now willingly accept.

Perhaps the weirdest thing to me is the news coverage showing images of empty streets and shopping malls.

Thus far, doomsday predictions have not been met. We are not dropping like flies and life goes on, if a little differently. The pandemic is being arrested and more people around the globe are breathing easier - no pun intended.

Donald Trump was, as usual, very slow out of the box but when he finally woke up to the gravity of things, he ramped up considerably the delivery of vital drugs and services. For reasons I find unaccountable, Spain and Italy remain the basket cases. You would imagine that the underlying health of the populations in those First World countries would be pretty good.

As I write this, the Prime Minister and Treasurer are speaking about the crisis on Sky News. I remember when I first met Scott Morrison. Mutual friends introduced us and I instantly recognised the charm of this sometimes corny but always decent bloke. His intellect is sharp, and that too was obvious. He was a warrior and Anthony Albanese, when he first attained the Labor leadership, said to me — “now he is about to meet one”.

Albanese has all the attributes needed for the top job and the next election will see a clash of styles and ideas that should be entertaining.

The other strength that Morrison has demonstrated is his capacity to take a punch or two. He is no sook and his love of contact sport serves him well in politics. There are always plenty of MPs and ambitious party members carrying batons in their knapsacks.

In the Liberal Party, only Josh Frydenberg could take over if the PM got on the wrong side of a bus, because he has the overwhelming support of his caucus. If Albanese went tomorrow, I would imagine at least three shadow ministers would put their hands up to nominate. In no particular order, they would be Richard Marles, Joel Fitzgibbon and Jim Chalmers. The likelihood is, though, that the die is cast. Albanese will take on Morrison in a no-holds-barred contest.

Albanese will have to do what few Labor leaders have. He must convince voters he can be trusted to mind the till. This will be particularly hard because the Morrison government has been forced by circumstances to throw huge sums of money at the economy. They will have borrowed up to their eyeballs, albeit at historically low interest rates. In fact, interest rates are so low that I can’t understand why our state governments aren’t borrowing to the hilt to build the infrastructure. The investment would pay amazing dividends.

At the end of the government spending spree, whichever party is in power will have to work out how we repay that debt. This will be a hell of a job. Both sides of parliament have spent years supporting lower tax rates, with the notable exception of the Shorten-Bowen tax grab so totally rejected at the last election.

Albanese is too smart to go down that path but his task will be an uphill battle anyway — balancing Labor’s natural tendency to look after those at the bottom end first, with the need to maintain or increase business confidence, will certainly not be easy.

The question for federal Labor will be how to win an election when financial reality dictates that you can’t make big promises. I believe Australians may be ready to accept a harsh lesson.

Real leadership is about having the wisdom to diagnose what is wrong and having the courage to implement a solution that will bring the voters little joy.

The PM is in the great position of not making big promises; all he must do is assert he will deliver more of the same solid but unexciting stuff, which is his forte. I do not envy the Labor leader’s position. He has run out of good options.

Once again, the Greens hardly figure in election speculation. As they continue their endless, vicious feuding, they are stuck on about 10 per cent of the vote. It is now pretty much a far-left bedrock vote, because the original appeal of the Greens was based on care for the environment. When they talked about trees, they were relevant. Now they seem to be more about the “whacko” Adam Brandt type of useless leftie. Their vote plunged in the Tasmanian election and is in danger of tanking at the next federal poll. If you are thinking that impending electoral doom might help the Greens to focus on producing policies that are relevant to today’s society, you would be wrong.

Lastly, a word about Trump. He looks like a child playing deadly games. He clearly imagines himself as the fastest gun in the west. His order to his forces to “shoot down” Iranian gunboats harassing US shipping is as terrifying as it is dangerous. Being the one to fire the first shot is never a good look and may give some legitimacy to these mad mullahs who control Iran. Those ignorant, hate-filled theocrats should never be presented as being only as bad as the world’s superpower. The Israelis have been right all along. As long as the mullahs run the show, there can never be peace in the Middle East.