Donald Trump is an enemy of constitutional democracy and a wrecker of political conservatism. Trump is now stamped with a brand that will last forever. His plan to remain a live political force means that conservatives in all countries, not just the US, will be forced into a critical decision. Will they have the courage and wisdom to repudiate Trump and reject his claims to lead conservative politics against the rising tide of progressivism? This question, obviously, is an agonising dilemma for the Republican Party. But it is not unique to the US. Trump’s appeal stretched across borders and impinged on conservative politics worldwide, including Australia.
Trump’s supporters in Australia — in politics, media and conservative-aligned groups and institutions — cannot avoid this decision. Supporting Trump now assumes a different meaning because Trump’s status has changed decisively since the presidential election.
Being a Trump supporter is no longer about defending an erratic, narcissistic president. This is because Trump promoted the lie the election was stolen and tried to intimidate the US system into refusing to certify Joe Biden’s victory. He demanded vice-president Mike Pence reject the states’ electoral votes. “Do it Mike,” Trump tweeted — but Pence refused and declared he would defend the constitution.
This was an assault on democracy by a president who took an oath to defend constitutional democracy and then sought to overthrow it. It was a political crime. Championing Trump now crosses a threshold into defending someone who tried to overturn an election. It is a lurch from democratic polity into autocracy.
It puts Trump outside the parameters of acceptable political leadership. People still defending Trump need to be called out. Offering the weasel word apologia “but I don’t defend what Trump did over the Capitol” won’t cut it — we know every autocrat in history made sense on some issue or other but that was never a justification for endorsing them as a candidate or political leader or embracing their creed.
This is important because Trump is not finished. An intense political struggle is coming — focused in the US — between empowered progressives and vanquished conservatives. Yes, President Biden is a centrist. But despite Biden’s unity pledge there is every chance his administration will engage, on some issues, in excessive progressivism, untenable identity politics, violate conservative norms of virtue and take the US on to pathways abhorrent to most Republicans.
Who will lead the Republican resistance when Biden overreaches? Who will become the conservative flag-bearer? Who will articulate conservative morality against rampant progressives? Trump will seek that status. Any ceding by Republicans of that mantle to Trump would be the kiss of death.
As Peggy Noonan said in one of her brilliant Wall Street Journal columns on the impeachment: “Just as establishment Republicans have known they cannot win without the Trump base, the Trump base is about to learn they cannot win without non-Trump Republicans.”
Trump is illegitimate goods. He will never win majority support again. If conservatives still embrace Trump that will guarantee ongoing Democratic success. Trump is the best weapon the Democrats possess. He is an angry loser who cannot comprehend his own flaws. He survived impeachment because the 57-43 Senate vote fell short of the required two-thirds majority. That was politics, not justice. Trump is not vindicated. On the contrary, he is guilty beyond reasonable doubt. And Trump is politically weakened.
Noonan advised the Republicans: “So be brave. The Democrats want you tied to Mr Trump forever. Stop, now.” She suggested how Trump’s resurgence bid could be rebuffed by the quiet Americans: “Don’t mess with my country.” Trump has messed with America too much, messed with its institutions, its civil discourse, its democracy.
Most of the Republicans who voted against impeachment did not defend Trump. They know people will be jailed for the Capitol invasion. There were arguments for and against impeachment of Trump but two things emerged from the process — video and audio revealed the invasion was more serious than initially recognised and the invaders got close to the politicians; and the lives of senior US politicians would have been at risk had the invaders reached their targets. Having incited the mob Trump, when he saw their invasion, declined to immediately order them off.
It is one thing to brand minority leader Mitch McConnell a hypocrite because he voted against conviction but then said Trump was “practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of the day”. It is another thing, however, because McConnell seeks to damn Trump from any future influence in the party.
Yet Trump is not the pariah he deserves to be. His ability to inflame his base against progressive Democrats and Republican opponents remains immense. Nobody else matches his immoral celebrity status and in the current age what matters is celebrity, not morals.
The more the conservative margins in Western democracy stay with Trump, the more their cause will be compromised. Australia has been fortunate because the two Liberal incumbents during this era — Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison — while seeking good relations with the Trump administration largely worked to prevent Trump’s political brand from penetrating their party.
This will be seen as a decisive achievement. The test for those Australians who call themselves conservative and aspire to influence the Morrison government is how they deal with Trump and his ongoing campaign against progressivism. Conservatives need to embrace the moral precept that many have forgotten — the atrocities of the left cannot justify support for Trump.
This argument was best put by former Wall Street Journal editor-in-chief Gerard Baker last month. It’s true that Black Lives Matter engaged in violence, that Democrats promoted the false Russian collusion story, that the anti-Trump camp promotes fake news. But Baker said Trump’s behaviour was “uniquely and unforgivably iniquitous (and) cannot be excused by citing counterparts on the left”.
Precisely. But this is what conservatives don’t get. It is their constant, all-consuming and false justification for exonerating and defending Trump. They apologise for Trump by saying his opponents are just as bad or worse. We have heard this dismal mantra, day after day, for four years. It is intellectually and morally false, a smokescreen for the refusal of conservatives to judge and condemn Trump for what he says and does. It is a moral blindness that cripples conservatives whenever Trump’s name is raised.
As Baker said, the only path forward for a renewed conservative movement is to articulate and address the grievances of people — Americans and others — and that means denying personal fealty to Trump. There is no other option.
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