Australia-China relations have entered a new historic era, one that will involve much more strategic competition, political mess and diplomatic and security challenge than anything we have known previously in our modern diplomatic history with Beijing.
Revelations that ASIO is investigating Chinese efforts to place a “Manchurian candidate” into the Australian parliament, and that a claimed Chinese intelligence official, Wang Liqiang, has defected to Australia amid sensational allegations, combined with the blunt public statements of former security chiefs Dennis Richardson and Duncan Lewis about Beijing’s interference and cyber-espionage in Australia, together pull the scab off a wound we long tried to ignore.
The historic epoch of the Canberra-Beijing relationship that has just passed — from 1972 to 2014 — was one of continuous sustained improvement, despite periodic ups and downs, and deepening in the relationship. It reached its symbolic zenith in 2014 when Canberra and Beijing, under Xi Jinping’s leadership, agreed to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
The good era was great for Australia, economically, culturally and politically. It began when Gough Whitlam established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China in 1972 and was consolidated when Deng Xiaoping took power in China and successive pragmatic Australian prime ministers Malcolm Fraser, Bob Hawke, Paul Keating and John Howard all made the China relationship a high priority.
The Australian debate is bedevilled by those pro-Beijing voices who think this relationship can somehow be recreated. It cannot be recreated. It is gone. Gone.
These same voices pretend the relationship was lost in the first place due to Australian mistakes. The relationship has changed because Xi has transformed Beijing’s strategic and political path. Xi took power in 2012 but it is since 2014 that the savage domestic repression, the strategic aggression in the South China Sea and the increased attempt to bully and influence nations such as Australia have become clearer and much stronger.
In that time, Canberra has done two things that really upset Beijing. It banned Huawei on national security grounds from participating in the 5G rollout. And it passed legislation to combat foreign interference in Australian politics. Beijing hated both these actions for their own sake as they restricted the potential for Beijing to influence Australia. But it also hated them because they fed into debate other nations are having about how to deal with China.
From Poland to Israel to Canada to Britain, and all across Asia in Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore and other capitals, officials have closely referenced the Australian experience with Huawei and foreign interference laws when making their own decisions.
Australian security agencies are monitoring and combating Beijing’s efforts at securing influence across the broad range of key Australian institutions — political parties, trade unions, universities and corporations.
Former ASIO boss Richardson is right to argue that both sides of politics have handled the China relationship well so far. They have both been firm and consistent without being hysterical, which is not to say they haven’t made some mistakes.
It was a Labor government that first banned Huawei, it was Labor that opposed the extradition treaty with China. The Liberals for their part renewed the Huawei ban, passed foreign interference legislation and reformed the foreign investment approval process to give much greater consideration to national security.
These were all necessary decisions and they all produced angst with Beijing.
The new era in Australia-China relations — the Xi Jinping era — will be unprecedentedly complex and messy. The trick for any Australian government will be to manage risk and integrate the disparate strands of policy, which will contain their positive and negative elements, into a coherent package.
The new era in Australia-China relations — the era of complexity, confusion, competition and simultaneous co-operation — announced itself dramatically this week.
It will challenge every element of Australian policymaking.
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