Canberra and Tokyo together can find right path on China

Illustration: Eric Lobbecke

Japan and Australia face a new and challenging world. It is vital they find ways to broaden and deepen their bilateral relationship to meet this new set of circumstances.

Consider the following four developments affecting our security and prosperity.

First, China has adopted an extremely aggressive stance both at home and abroad since Xi Jinping took power. It has made unacceptable claims of sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea and over large expanses of the South China Sea. It has introduced an abusive national security law in Hong Kong. It has failed to respect its international treaty obligation to govern Hong Kong in accord with the principle of “one country, two systems”. It has engaged in threatening military behaviour towards Taiwan. It has used its great economic power to achieve geopolitical goals in developing countries through the Belt and Road Initiative. And it has continued double-digit growth in spending on its military over decades. China seems determined to become a hegemon in the Asia-Pacific region.

Second, the US has changed under the presidency of Donald Trump. His “America First” approach has alienated foreign allies and partners on one hand and entrenched foes on the other. Multilateral bodies have been either looked on as enemies or ignored. Respected international rules and standards – valued over time to ensure a degree of international order and stability – have been set aside under the banner of “America First”. But it is fair to say the Trump administration has quietly earned some credit in the region for taking a firm stand against China’s unilateral claims in the South China Sea in defence of the international rule of law. Still, it is sad to note the decline of the once broad international network based on mutual trust centring on the US.

Third, look at the freefalling US-China relationship: A new Cold War, talk of decoupling economies, and even fears of an accidental hot war. No one is sure what might happen if the US and China stay their confrontational course. No one wants war, but an increasing number of people fear it may come if not checked in time.

Fourth, the world has suffered a tremendous shock because of the coronavirus pandemic. A brake of unprecedented scale has been applied suddenly to the global economy.

Almost all business and private travel has stopped, plunging us into the most serious recession of our time.

Japan and Australia have suffered their fair share of economic shock. People in both have been struggling. While this pandemic will not go soon, life must go on.

How can Japan and Australia best ride out this global upheaval? In many ways, they are natural partners. It is natural and desirable for them to co-operate more closely in the face of this turmoil and try to shape the regional environment in accord with their national interests. Those interests appear to be very similar and aligned, if not identical.

We both have longstanding alliance relationships with the US at the core of security arrangements and seek to strengthen those ties amid this strategic uncertainty. Neither wants to see an isolated America; we would like to see a stronger US commitment and presence in the Indo-Pacific to contribute to the region’s stability and prosperity.

What is the most effective way for countries to respond to an aggressive, bullying China?

There is huge potential for co-operation between Japan and Australia on this point. We are both free and democratic, and believe in the free market economy and the rules-based international order. And we regard each other as special strategic partners.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is said to be planning a visit to Japan soon to meet new Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. It would follow this week’s meetings in Tokyo of foreign ministers of the so-called Quad – Japan, Australia, the US and India.

This has presented a timely opportunity to reconfirm the strong bilateral ties between our nations as well as the regional commitments among the Quad in an uncertain world.

And there are other ways Japan and Australia could improve strategic and economic co-operation.

For instance, Japan and Australia could join forces to help meet infrastructure needs of less developed nations in the Indo-Pacific, helping China understand those nations need not rely solely on its Belt and Road Initiative to improve their infrastructure.

Japan and Australia should promote a free and open Indo-Pacific in collaboration with the US, India and ASEAN countries. Broadening our wings further to include like-minded nations such as the UK and France would be an effective and practical way to curb China’s dangerous ambitions. Only a wider network of countries can possibly persuade China to understand the danger and accept the reality on the ground. In the end, we must establish peaceful coexistence with China.

Another area for co-operation is in intelligence sharing. Japan could join the Five Eyes – the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand intelligence agreement. As Six Eyes, our nations could co-ordinate their policies much more effectively and with better results.

Japan and Australia also could strengthen the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for a Trans-Pacific Partnership by urging the US to rejoin. It is quite possible, especially if Joe Biden is elected president. Expanding the CPTPP would be to play a shrewd diplomatic card. We could even consider inviting Taiwan to join as an economic jurisdiction, the same basis on which it was able to become a member of APEC.

We would want Taiwan to join before China, which would seek to block Taiwan’s membership.

China joining the CPTPP would open and liberalise its economy and bring benefit to all members, including China itself.

Next, we could consider promoting the 16-member Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership due to be signed this year. China is already committed but India has baulked at joining, yet might reconsider. Still, a free-trade agreement encompassing all the ASEAN countries plus China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand presents huge potential to boost commerce.

One way or another, we must find a path for peaceful coexistence with China. Japan and Australia working more closely together, as natural partners, can make a big contribution to achieving that and a free and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

Sumio Kusaka was Japan’s ambassador to Australia between 2015 and 2019. The views expressed here are his own.