At that moment Labor’s successful small-target election strategy is gone; its promises are exposed; the honeymoon period for a new government ends; an economic plan will be in full view; and the monopoly of the political debate ends.
Judgment can be made about the content of the budget, not the leaked good news nor the shaped bad news; delivery will change all expectations and expose political spin.
While the focus is naturally on the Treasurer delivering his first budget for a new government’s first term, there is an even more important political development taking shape – the leadership contest between Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton.
Since the May election, including the few parliamentary sittings, Labor has done well out of its small target strategy, benefited from low-hanging fruit from the Morrison government, particularly on foreign affairs, and dominated the political stage.
This budget sitting of parliament will be the first time federal politics moves beyond the immediate post-election honeymoon period for the Labor government and gives the opportunity for the opposition to address substantial policies.
Given the political nature of this budget, which is designed to highlight the grim economic outlook, justify future austerity measures and clear the ledger of as many election promises as possible, Labor can’t hide any longer and the Coalition can’t afford to miss an opportunity.
As well, Chalmers is looking to exploit the election cycle and have the luxury of bringing down four budgets in his first term before the next election so any political framework from this budget will have as long-term ramifications as the economic settings.
Beyond the economy, the Prime Minister and Opposition are seeking to frame their opponent in their terms and colour the public view through the spectrum of the budget.
Casting the character of the opposing leader is something Malcolm Turnbull failed to do with Bill Shorten, that Shorten failed to do with Scott Morrison and that Morrison failed to do with Albanese, all with catastrophic results.
Given Albanese and Dutton are the most experienced opponents in terms of parliamentary experience, political instinct and previous ministerial experience since John Howard faced off against Paul Keating, neither is going to miss the opportunity to use this budget to damage the other. They have already started.
Albanese, conscious of Dutton’s hardman image and his own experience as opposition leader, is painting Dutton as negative, Dr No and obstructionist before Labor has really put forward any of its own economic agenda.
At the weekend, Albanese said: “Peter Dutton opposes everything. He’s just opposed to everything. There’s been no consideration of the fact they weren’t successful at the last election.
“Peter Dutton is the leader of the no-alition, not leader of the Coalition. He’s someone who’s negative, who doesn’t seem to have got the message Australians are sick of conflict fatigue.”
Dutton’s response went further than to say the opposition would “take a sensible attitude and support good measures” and sought to work on Albanese’s left-wing past and previous radical agendas, linking them to a threat to the rising cost of living.
On industrial relations, Dutton declared: “The CFMEU and others are very influential within this government – they donate millions and millions of dollars to the Australian Labor Party. We can’t have economy-wide strikes. It would be crippling for businesses, particularly when we’re going into an uncertain period”.
“If Labor starts tinkering with these sorts of policies, making it more difficult for businesses to operate when their electricity bills are going up and up under Labor, when every input cost is going up, and if they’ve got workers who are on strike, then that will make our economy weaker and it will put upward pressure on inflation and interest rates,” he said.
The mantra has begun: Dutton is negative; Albanese is radical lefty.
This is the leadership politics behind Chalmers’ budget.
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As of 7.30pm on Tuesday when Jim Chalmers delivers his budget speech, Labor’s post-election advantages end.