Sometimes you’ve got to be cruel to be kind.
It’s one of life’s perennial lessons that politicians and political parties fond of virtue signalling never appear to learn, especially when it comes to immigration.
Joe Biden and the Democrats have found themselves in the same humiliating position Kevin Rudd and Labor were in 2013, when the government had to impose the so-called PNG Solution to crush the mounting flow of unauthorised boat arrivals that had trashed Labor’s electoral standing.
The US President announced a new set of tougher immigration rules this week, contradicting earlier promises never to emulate the allegedly draconian policies of his predecessor, Donald Trump, who, as Tony Abbott once did, has made political hay out of an unprecedented influx of immigrants.
What a difference a few years have made.
On the campaign trail ahead of the 2020 presidential election, Biden slammed Trump’s tougher immigration policies as cruel, un-American and counterproductive.
In an unsurprisingly short announcement where he took no questions, Biden said he would “shut the border” once average daily arrivals across the southern border exceeded 2500 a day (which, in theory, still would permit about 912,000 arrivals a year) across the course of a week. Any arrivals that exceed that number will be pushed back into Mexico.
That sounds a lot, but it’s vastly fewer than the 2.48 million migrants who crossed into the US in the 2023 financial year over the southern border alone, about triple the number in 2020.
More than 11 million undocumented immigrants have entered the US since Biden became President, almost the equivalent to the population of Bolivia.
Republicans successfully have foisted the blame on Democrats for the surge in inflation that has punished US households when in truth both parties have been responsible, given the trillions of new dollars spewed into the economy during Trump’s presidency.
But on immigration, Democrat policies have been solely to blame, triggering a global siren song that has lured tens of thousands of would-be immigrants from far beyond South America, provided they pay the thousands of dollars to the crooks who control the border.
It has been a bonanza for the Mexican cartels. Republican senator Ted Cruz of Texas said on Tuesday that in 2018 they made about $US500m in revenue from the human trade, compared with about $US13bn last year.
Thousands of Chinese, Turks and even Russians have made their way to the US border via Mexico in the past few years. The number of Chinese nationals, almost exclusively young men, crossing the southern border illegally has reached 27,500 since October 1 last year, up almost 8000 per cent since 2021, fuelling fears of a potential fifth column.
The influx has been a political disaster for the Democrats and for Biden, who is behind Trump in the polls despite the latter’s recent criminal conviction. Illegal immigration is now the No.1 or 2 issue for most US voters, who rate Republicans as vastly more competent in handling immigration. Most Americans agree with Trump’s plan to deport millions of illegal immigrants if he returns to the White House. What ensured the demise of the second Rudd government looks set to do the same for Biden’s administration.
Perhaps it’s a long-term political strategy for the Democrats?
Why the ruling party has done so little to staunch the flow of illegal arrivals, given widespread public fury, remains a mystery. The Democrats haven’t been as adept as Labor. For months Biden had claimed he had little power to stem the tide, arguing he needed to pass new legislation.
Cynics, including Elon Musk, who regularly weighs into the debate on social media, argue the Democrats secretly want the influx to bolster the ranks of future Democrat voters. The US electoral system is so poor that in some states undocumented immigrants easily can vote if they are willing to lie and claim they are citizens. It’s a risky strategy given the stark turnaround in support for the Democrats among culturally conservative Catholic Hispanic voters, who increasingly chafe at the party’s socially permissive turn.
Regardless, what is clear is that the Democrats and Republicans have flipped roles. Once the GOP championed turning a blind eye to undocumented immigration: the influx of cheap labour helped small businesses and boosted GDP. Now, it’s the Democrats who extol the virtues of untrammelled immigration.
To be fair, the Republicans baulked at passing a new immigration law earlier this year that would have beefed up border security. It’s possible the hardheads in both parties don’t want immigration to decline given the US white population is shrinking. Without illegal immigration, the US is in the same invidious boat as Germany, Russia and China: a steadily shrinking population.
The Democrats haven’t fully learned Labor’s lesson. In 2013, Labor had to go even further than John Howard in ensuring an end to the arrivals, undertaking to send all arrivals to Papua New Guinea. Biden’s new rules aren’t as tough as Trump’s were. Mexico, which has no interest in looking after non-Mexican nationals, hasn’t agreed to the measures.
It’s a case of too little too late for Biden. The latest White House measures will do little to change the widespread perception among would-be immigrants that the Biden administration is a pushover on the border.
Rhetoric and perception matter as much black-letter law, and that’s hard to change overnight. Biden’s tougher measures exclude children, for instance, which ensures an incentive for parents to send their children over the border unaccompanied so they may be allowed to stay.
If the Democrats had been more aware of recent Australian political history, they’d have had a better chance in November.
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