Anti-Annastacia Palaszczuk tide yet to turn for unions’ choice

Dumping former premier Annastacia Palaszczuk hasn’t turned things around for Labor, according to the latest Newspoll.

It looks like Labor’s pre-Christmas putsch against Annastacia Palaszczuk didn’t work for voters.

The backroom ousting of the three-time election winner and union-led elevation of her not-so-loyal deputy, Steven Miles, as Queensland premier has done nothing to clear the “It’s time” factor hanging over Labor after holding power for 30 of the past 35 years.

Queensland voters are traditionally cautious; changing the political make-up of the state government just seven times since World War I.

But when they do, recent history shows they do it big.

Anna Bligh’s government was wiped out in 2012, with Labor reduced to just seven MPs by Campbell Newman’s Liberal National Party.

But his divisive leadership style over his term as premier turned off voters, who delivered a 14 per cent swing against the LNP and government to Labor and a little-known Palaszczuk.

The latest Newspoll shows the predicted swing isn’t as big as 2012 or 2015, but it is enough to change government.

Ever since taking the top job, Miles has done everything to turn things around.

His leadership has been a mix of populism, policy backflips and catch-ups in taking stronger action on issues such as youth crime and public housing.

Among his first acts as Premier was to outsource an “independent” review of the unpopular Olympic Games Gabba stadium rebuild, just weeks after drafting and championing the final plans through cabinet.

But voters aren’t moving.

One former ALP minister last year clumsily used a car metaphor to publicly espouse that all Labor needed to stay in government was to change to a “shiny new trusted-brand latest model”, ie, dump Palaszczuk.

The Newspoll results show it will take much more: Queenslanders aren’t impressed with the new Premier, far from it.

Miles’s satisfaction levels – at 38 per cent – are the lowest for a Queensland premier since Newman (35 per cent) ahead of his 2015 election defeat, and the lowest for a Labor leader since Bligh (36 per cent), ahead of her record loss.

Not the sort of numbers that validate the union powerbrokers’ factional deal to elect Miles Premier and deprive cabinet colleague and aspirant Shannon Fentiman of even testing her support in the party room.

And there is no Labor advantage over the female vote, with both major parties running all-bloke leadership teams – the first time in two decades.

Now Labor will turn to Plan B – try to buy itself re-election.

The government’s decision to hike coal royalties as the price of the commodity soared to record levels has been a boon for the budget bottom line.

It delivered surpluses and a cashed-up campaign kitty, which will begin to flow from the June budget and be targeted at families, struggling with the cost of living.

And Labor will try to wedge the LNP on those measures.

The LNP has repeatedly shown itself capable of shooting itself in the foot, fatally.

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli, while more disciplined and energetic than some of his predecessors, is untested on the stump, under pressure. So far, he has been trading on the declining popularity of Palaszczuk and now Miles, offering little in policy initiative, and it would be dangerous for him to think it is enough.

The LNP’s lead is convincing but it’s seven months to election day, and the contest is far from over.