Anthony Albanese’s wobbles will give Coalition hope
As the pomp and ceremony of the opening of parliament subsides, the stark reality of the May 21 election result is now on show.
Parliament is the beating heart of our democracy. For all the wishful thinking and high intentions to make the chamber operate to a new civility on day one, it won’t be long before it’s a bear pit of personal gibes and slurs, matters of public importance and motions of no confidence. The new Speaker of the House, Milton Dick, a truly great choice by his Labor colleagues, will guide the contest of ideas and ensure all are heard or no longer heard as required.
The government will look along its backbench and sweat nervously on having secured government by an absolute majority of just two. At least it should reflect that, if not for Tangney and Higgins, it would be governing with Adam Bandt’s Trots or a collective of teals.
Equally, the Peter Dutton-led Coalition might see its reduced numbers and the growing crossbench that has come at its electoral expense as being too high a hill to climb in less than three years. Simply looking across the dispatch box, though, will give it hope.
Paul Keating won a fifth election on the trot in 1993 and had his caucus throw a “True Believers” ball in Parliament House’s Great Hall. A dapper Gareth Evans grinding away to a disco beat with Cheryl Kernot made the perfect Liberal attack ad only a few years later – a memory no amount of time or therapy can erase.
John Howard hunted down a depleted Keating and crushed Labor in 1996. Then in the first term Howard lost seven ministers to scandals, from insider trading to travel rorts. The electoral icing came with political genius Peter Reith deciding to back in balaclava-wearing thugs on Patrick’s wharves. Labor won the popular vote but not quite the seats in 1998.
Fast forward to 2013, and the crushing victory that Tony Abbott handed federal Labor didn’t even see him serve out a full term as prime minister, replaced by no less than the renowned Liberal Party loyalist Malcolm Turnbull.
It’s notable that the Opposition Leader, like Bill Shorten in 2013, starts from 56 seats in the lower house. In politics it’s not about where you are, it’s what you do next that counts the most. Wishful thinkers could dismiss the early missteps of the Albanese government as first-term wobbles. The Liberals instead will take heart from what looks far more like a pattern of behaviour.
The five days it took to arrive at reinstating the pandemic leave payments after Anthony Albanese said casuals could work from home – pouring beers, caring for the aged and selling groceries from their couch – was just terrible to watch. As bad was the Prime Minister channelling Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez and telling the legally independent Reserve Bank what to do on interest rates a day after announcing his own government’s review into its operations.
First prize, though, goes to the time taken for Agriculture Minister Murray Watt to actually do something vaguely strong on our border security against Indonesian foot-and-mouth disease, aptly abbreviated to FMD. Watt is smarter than this, but he, rather than his mandarin adviser, will burn if he gets this wrong, especially in his home state of cattle-dependent Queensland.
Dutton cleverly gave Labor an open licence to “go early and go hard” on “whatever tough measures they have in mind” yet we seem to be taking a Canberra bubble, public service approach to protecting an $80bn national industry.
The same public service that delivered pink batts now is expected to be trusted with implementing sanitation mats. Labor won’t be able to blame Scott Morrison for a crisis on our doorstep and firmly on Labor’s watch, yet extraordinarily the government isn’t throwing everything at it to ensure it’s stopped at the border.
If every visitor until a few months ago had to be screened for Covid-19 and fully vaccinated before they could even board a plane, why isn’t it OK to process every single passenger arriving from Indonesia – both as they get on their flight and when they land?
The Bali trip with the side hustle to Ubud hugging monkeys, walking through fields to local temples and catching Kuta cooties is a festering petri dish of FMD. FMD indeed if we fail to stop it.
In addition to all these issues, Labor faces the worst set of economic conditions of any incoming Labor government since James Scullin in 1929, a one-term government that served during the Depression.
On Thursday Jim Chalmers will give us a sobering insight into just how dire the situation really is for Australian families already under real and sustained financial pressure. For many this will be the first time in their lives they face crippling interest bills and basic grocery, power and fuel costs going through the roof.
Labor already suffers from a collective doubt in the electorate about its economic management credentials at the best of times. How much trust the electorate will have in Labor after the next year or two will determine whether it is even a chance at the next poll.
All of this pain is occurring on Labor’s watch, with the Prime Minister no longer able to campaign against “Scott Morrison’s failures”. Morrison isn’t even in the chamber this week and Labor has to realise the electorate at Labor’s request passed judgment on the Morrison government back in May.
Labor’s 77 seats were built on a small-target safety play that made Morrison the issue. Well, it worked, but in so doing the voters punted Morrison rather than warmly embraced Labor.
Labor won with the worst primary vote of any incoming government. The teals and the Greens won more seats than Labor’s increase in the lower house.
The same happened in the Senate with the Greens and independents increasing their representation as Labor failed to make any gains.
The result, combined with the less-than-decisive start to its term in office, should give Dutton’s Liberal and Nationals Coalition hope it will be more than competitive in less than three years against Labor.
It also should give Labor pause to reflect on having secured such a limited mandate for the next term, all while it faces significant challenges domestically and internationally. Taking too long and being seen to have feet of clay when making necessary and vital decisions in the national interest will not be rewarded by an electorate that voted Morrison out because of budget profligacy and failing to make the tough decisions required for the nation.
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