When it comes to AUKUS, Anthony Albanese is lucky to have Sir Keir Starmer in his corner.
Australia’s Prime Minister has missed his chance, for now, to personally win Donald Trump’s direct support for the submarine pact, with the US President departing the G7 in Canada to deal with the Middle East war.
But amid a snap 30-day review of AUKUS ordered by the Trump administration, the British Prime Minister appears to have secured presidential backing for the deal.
Unlike Albanese, Sir Keir managed to get a meeting with Trump before he skipped town.
Asked later at a joint press conference with the President whether the trilateral subs deal was proceeding, the pair looked at each other and nodded in agreement.
Answering for them both, Sir Keir said: “Yep, we’re proceeding with that, it’s a really important deal to both of us.”
While not quite from the horse’s mouth, the statement will be a relief for Albanese.
Britain can build its nuclear submarines if need be, but Australia would be up the proverbial creek if the AUKUS deal fell over.
The navy’s six Collins-class boats are on their last legs, even with planned life-extending upgrades. After having run down the clock with false starts on Japanese and French submarines, the collapse of AUKUS would leave Australia without a viable submarine force for decades.
And as the government has warned, only nuclear-powered submarines offer the capability Australia needs to stealthily deter Chinese threats.
The fact Albanese has to rely on Sir Keir to get Trump to endorse the AUKUS deal is somewhat embarrassing for him, but he’ll take any help he can get.
Sir Keir and Trump get along well, despite their political differences. “He’s slightly more liberal than I am, but for some reason we get along,” Trump said after their meeting in Kananaskis, Alberta.
Albanese and Trump have had three phone conversations but are yet to meet in person. And there are question marks over the PM’s ability to win over the unpredictable President. Trump is also renowned for tearing up deals signed by his predecessors, and key figures in the Trump administration are deeply sceptical of AUKUS.
The Albanese government has put on a brave face after the review announcement, arguing it’s normal for an incoming government to run the rule over such a big undertaking.
Yet there are very real concerns about the US’s long-term commitment to the deal and its ability to deliver a promised three to five Virginia-class submarines to Australia before supporting the US and Britain to build their own fleets of SSN AUKUS subs.
The US is building 1.2 Virginia boats a year but needs to turn out at least 2.33 a year to have enough to give to Australia without undermining its submarine force.
The US’s influential Pentagon deputy Elbridge Colby told a British think tank last year he would have been “quite sceptical” about signing off the AUKUS agreement, saying its benefits were “questionable … My concern is, why are we giving away this crown jewel asset when we most need it?
“AUKUS is only going to lead to more submarines collectively in 10, 15, 20 years, way beyond the window of maximum danger, which is in this decade.”
Colby is also concerned that any submarines given to Australia might not be made available in the event of a war with China over Taiwan. The results of the review are likely to elaborate on these problems and more.
But Trump’s nod for AUKUS looks like keeping open the “optimal pathway” for us to acquire nuclear submarines … for now.
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