Anthony Albanese maps out long pre-election plan

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Anthony Albanese has moved directly to kill off the growing presumption that Labor will fall into minority government at the 2025 election as he maps a long-term re-election strategy aimed at rebuilding political momentum over the summer months.

The Prime Minister has prepared a three-month pre-election campaign, which began with a US-style political rally in Adelaide on Sunday and will have at least two more rallies in December and January with major new announcements for second-term policies.

While Albanese isn’t ruling out a March election and the pre-election campaign could provide the opportunity to go the polls without bringing down the promised March budget the long-term strategy is aimed at a May election, when it is due.

As part of Albanese’s plans to regain momentum, set out a second-term agenda, pressure Peter Dutton on policy, target Greens seats and instil confidence with ALP MPs, he told his caucus colleagues on Tuesday that Labor would be returned with more MPs and senators.

There is a growing expectation and acceptance that the Albanese government – which has a majority of just two seats – will suffer a net loss at the election and only be able to form a minority government with support from the Greens and independents.

But Albanese is reassuring his colleagues that his first-term government will defy history and improve on its 2022 election result returning as a majority government. A Labor majority or minority government is more likely than a Coalition government because of Liberal losses at the last election and the record number of independents and Greens.

Apart from the need to seek support from independents or Greens a loss of Labor’s majority could trigger a leadership spill against Albanese because it is regarded as a “loss” by some cabinet ministers.

Albanese has always been confident of increasing his majority and has been buoyed by Greens setbacks in the ACT and Queensland elections, with rising hopes of winning back the seats of Brisbane and Griffith.

While Albanese’s three-month campaign will be aimed at reinforcing Labor’s achievements on wages, tax cuts, “fighting inflation” and pressing the Opposition Leader on policy he will continue his focused attack on the Greens who have opposed the government over housing and Middle East policies.

Despite the irony that it may well be Liberal preferences which give Labor a win over the Greens, Albanese is looking wherever he can to ensure a majority victory.

After falling into a political hole last year when the indigenous voice to parliament referendum failed so abysmally, Albanese used a midterm political campaign over summer and massive tax cuts to restore Labor support and his own leadership.

This US rally-led summer campaign will follow Sunday’s format with a reinforcement of what has been achieved and a promise of new policies for the second term akin to the $16bn student debt cut announced in Adelaide.

If the campaign succeeds and Labor’s fortunes revive there will be the chance in February to call an election in March but the fixed West Australian State election makes a March election difficult, with the expected fallback of May 10 or 17, 2025 as Albanese has always claimed.