Anthony Albanese confident ‘focus’ will lead to Yes vote for Indigenous voice to parliament referendum

Anthony Albanese believes greater ‘focus’ will see more support for the voice.

Anthony Albanese has declared the referendum for the Indigenous voice to parliament will be supported by a majority of the people and a majority of the states on the back of a short, five or six week campaign which will be the chance to turn around the negative polling.

The Prime Minister has brushed off the latest Newspoll survey showing No support well ahead of the Yes campaign -48 to 41 per cent – arguing that Australians will not “focus” until the formal campaign begins and people can see the referendum question.

“Most Australians will focus when the referendum is being held,” Albanese told Sky News as he foreshadowed a referendum campaign of just five or six weeks.

While conceding the Yes campaign “needs to be stronger making their case” Albanese would not entertain any idea of deferring the referendum or changing the approach expressing his confidence and faith in the Australian people to do the right thing.

But the PM’s confidence flies in the face of the national polling, including the latest Newspoll on the voice, which demonstrate that the more voters see of the proposed voice the less they like it.

Minister for Indigenous Australians Linda Burney.

On the eve of the release of the formal Yes and No pamphlets support for the voice to parliament has fallen in every category – except Green voters – in terms of net support for the voice.

The trend in net support tells the story of an accelerating decline in the number of Yes voters across the board as more people move into the don’t know category or directly into the No camp.

While there are still positive net ratings the difference between support for Yes and No – among Green voters (plus 61 per cent), ALP supporters (plus 33 per cent), 18-34 year-olds (plus 30 per cent), university education (plus 11 per cent), metropolitan areas plus 4 per cent) and 35 to 49 year olds (plus 3 per cent) there have been falls across the board in net terms since June.

Even the net difference within Green voters on the Yes and No sides dropped a point to plus five in the latest Newspoll survey.

The latest Newspoll shows a net change – the difference between Yes and No – of minus 7 per cent page points in total support but since the legislation was debated there has been a fall of ten percentage points in support for the voice.

Net falls in support for the voice since June now range from minus 2 for men to minus 31 for regional Australia.

The only demographic group with a positive trend of net approval for the voice is Green voters – plus five per cent in the latest Newspoll – and even that net support fell from six points in the previous Newspoll.

Even support among Labor voters has fallen in net terms by six points and among 18-34 year olds has fallen in net terms by 14 points since the legislation was in parliament.

Female voters’ support has fallen 18 per cent age points in net terms since the legislation was passed while regional Australia’s support has dropped 31 per cent and even support among University graduates as had a net fall of 10 per cent age points.

All these are key demographic groups for any chance in shifting support back to the voice and Albanese’s confidence the trend will reverse in a short sharp campaign fly in the face of the results so far.

There are still months before the poll will be announced – not at the Garma festival in August – and the likelihood all these declining trends will continue and be almost impossible to turn around.