Allies swing in behind Morrison’s South Pacific plan

As Mike Pompeo arrives in Australia for critically timed AUSMIN talks, Washington and Tokyo have come in strongly behind Scott Morrison’s ambitious agenda in the South Pacific.

The Trilateral Security Dialogue involving the three close allies has been a sometimes controversial body and it is intensely disliked by Beijing. But it provides the highest-level policy co-ordination between the US, Japan and Australia.

This is a moment of acute tension between the US and China, as the announcement of a new raft of US tariffs on Chinese exports makes clear.

The powerful TSD statement that the foreign ministers of the three countries issued was really all about China. It made three key commitments.

One: the US, Japan and Australia will step up infrastructure efforts in the South Pacific and co-ordinate their activities there closely.

Two: the three Pacific allies strongly restated their opposition to and condemnation of Beijing’s aggressive and illegal behaviour in the South China Sea, condemning in particular the deployment of advanced Chinese weapons systems there. Those who find comfort in Beijing’s periodic reassuring statements of benign intent should recall Chinese President Xi Jinping’s promise never to militarise the South China Sea. Militarising it is exactly what Beijing has subsequently done.

And the third big statement from the TSD was the emphasis on the importance of national security concerns in the rollout of next-generation telecom­munications networks. That sounds like bad news for Huawei and is evidence of a continuing US determination to create non-Chinese supply chains and equipment supplies in emerging hi-tech areas.

But for Australia, and certainly for the Prime Minister, the high place and prominence of the statement on the South Pacific must be extremely welcome.

The region, indeed the world, is entering a period of intensified strategic competition between the US and its allies on one hand, and Beijing and its allies, such as Russia, on the other.

At the same time, the world needs to work on maintaining as much co-operation as possible.

This balance of competition and co-operation will be difficult to maintain and will be always full of challenges.

It is an especially acute challenge for Australia because we fully participate in both the co-operation with China — through our huge trade relationship — but also in the strategic competition, especially in the South Pacific.

The South Pacific is of critical national security importance to us and Morrison deserves praise for the high priority he has given it in his prime ministership.

In the South Pacific, uniquely, Australia is the main direct strategic competitor with Beijing.

Our intelligence and evaluation agencies believe Beijing has the long-term ambition of acquiring or establishing a military base in the South Pacific. This is part of its strategy of eventually pushing the US out of Asia. Such a base would be a devastating blow against Australia’s national security.

This consideration has been part of what has led to the greatest turn of Australian policy attention to the South Pacific in several decades.

China’s is a much bigger economy than Australia’s but Australia is also a rich economy and can disproportionately focus its aid and infrastructure efforts on the South Pacific. It must accompany this with serious, ongoing personal and political attention to the South Pacific, which has typically been difficult for Canberra to maintain.

However, all these efforts are greatly enhanced by the support and co-operation of our giant friends the US and Japan.

They understand and instinctively share our strategic concerns in the Pacific. But they have a lot of other things to worry about and it is partly Canberra’s job to focus their attention on the Pacific.

The TSD statement shows Canberra has been successful in that endeavour.

Secretary of State Mr Pompeo is an extremely welcome visitor to Australia. He has emerged as the major strategic voice of the Trump administration, second only to the President himself. He also continues to carry a message of deepened US engagement in Asia. Strengthening such US engagement is a central purpose of Australian policy.