Albanese faces embarrassment over PNG deal as China prepares to swing in
The PM came to PNG this week expecting to ink a momentous ANZUS-style treaty with Australia’s nearest neighbour, which some of his most senior ministers had talked up relentlessly.
He left, instead, with a flimsy commitment to sign the treaty at an undisclosed date, after PNG’s cabinet failed to endorse the deal.
The hastily drafted document confirms the treaty is still an aspiration and remains very much at risk.
Just a day before, Albanese declared “Australia is ready to go”. It’s astonishing that he and his ministers behaved as though PNG was too, when Marape was yet to get the agreement across the line with his own government.
The fact that this is the second such failure in just over a week is highly embarrassing for Albanese and suggests hubris on the part of his government in its dealings with Pacific Island countries.
Both governments bravely sought to spin the failure into a win. But a senior PNG government source said the agreement was “still a work in progress”.
Albanese and Marape suggested the deal would be done in coming weeks. But PNG is not known as “the land of the unexpected” for nothing, and anything could happen from here.
Marape must get cabinet agreement for the treaty text, which confirms PNG would be required to “act to meet the common danger” if Australia came under attack.
There’s only one potential adversary of consequence this could apply to – the People’s Republic of China. The prospect of being drawn into such a conflict will no doubt give many of Marape’s cabinet ministers pause for thought.
There are already warnings being expressed by senior public figures in PNG that the agreement threatens the country’s sovereignty and could be unconstitutional. Expect these voices to become louder and more numerous in coming weeks.
China will also swing into action to try to derail the agreement. It has a lot to work with after the text of the deal was leaked.
The Chinese embassy in Port Moresby has close links with many of Marape’s ministers, and an array of carrots and sticks at its disposal.
Marape revealed PNG Defence Minister Billy Joseph will embark on a roadshow to explain the agreement to the country’s diplomatic partners, making his first stop in Beijing.
Joseph’s counterpart will, almost certainly, make clear China’s military might in an implied threat to Port Moresby.
Australia may be the biggest power in PNG’s immediate neighbourhood, but China is one of the region’s military big dogs, with capabilities to rival those of the US.
Albanese insists Australia won’t play its trump card by cancelling a $600m deal to back a PNG NRL team.
Such a move would be counter-productive, anyway, pushing away PNG at precisely the time Australia needs to keep it close.
The blame for this highly damaging failure rests with Albanese, who is closer to Marape than any Australian leader has been to a PNG counterpart since Gough Whitlam and Sir Michael Somare.
Defence Minister Richard Marles and Pacific Minister Pat Conroy must also wear their share of the responsibility.
They’ve both been to PNG more times than they can count. They should have known not to get ahead of themselves.
The Australian side will continue to encourage PNG as much as it can to get the treaty signed and ratified.
But while Marape may call Albanese “brother”, it’s far from certain that he can convince his PNG brothers and sisters that a binding defence treaty with Australia is in their country’s best interests.
More Coverage
RBA reverses course on rates and hints the next move is likely up
Anthony Albanese and James Marape smiled bravely as they signed a face-saving communique in Port Moresby on Wednesday with their gold-plated pens, but both knew they’d fallen well short.