Anthony Albanese will begin the second week of parliament facing a new assault from the opposition on its weakest political measure – border security – but it is one the Prime Minister feels confident he can defend.
Labor made no secret prior to the election of its plan to repeat Kevin Rudd’s pre-2007 commitment to abolish temporary protection visas for asylum-seekers.
This was a political risk then, and it remains so now.
National security is the only metric in most polling that still favours the Coalition today.
It’s easy to see why. Labor’s track record on border protection in government isn’t a proud one. It was also a weak spot for Albanese during the election campaign.
He now risks repeating history by confirming that the government will shift almost 20,000 asylum-seekers off TPVs and on to pathways for permanent residency.
The opposition will make a big deal of it. It has echoes of Rudd’s decision in February 2008 to dismantle John Howard’s Pacific solution. This, as history records, was met with disastrous and fatal consequences.
Operation Sovereign Borders, a rebranded Pacific solution model reintroduced under the Coalition post-2013, brought back TPVs, boat turnbacks and offshore processing.
These were the three pillars of a policy that has effectively prevented a return to the dark past. Albanese was careful in resisting calls from the Left to repeat the mistake in its entirety. He argued through the election campaign that a Labor government would maintain OSB. With one exception. He would once again abolish TPVs.
This was a key promise made in opposition and one the Left were going to make sure he kept as prime minister. From Albanese’s point of view, it is staying true to his pledge to stay strong on borders but not weak on humanity.
Albanese has been clever on two fronts. First, he will make good on his promise at the height of the monsoon, when few if any asylum-seeker boats are put to sea. The government will avoid a “surge” in attempts to penetrate the border, at least for the new next few weeks.
Second, he has avoided a messy parliamentary vote by merely introducing a new visa class to move a pre-OSB cohort on to permanent resident visa.
Albanese hasn’t abolished TPVs at all.
There are naturally concerns among more conservative Labor MPs that the messaging from the government will be a green light to people-smugglers.
And the duality of the political problem in this decision was evident in the conflicting statements issued on Sunday night by Home Affairs Minister Claire O’Neill – from the Victorian Labor Right faction – and Immigration Minister Andrew Giles – from the Victorian Socialist Left.
“It makes no sense – economically or socially – to keep them in limbo,” Giles said.
O’Neill on the other hand, was the hawk: “The Australian Defence Force and Australian Border Force are patrolling our waters to intercept and return any boats that try to enter.”
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