Albanese, Biden and Sunak’s AUKUS plan ticks many boxes, but there are plenty of unknowns

Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom have announced a new strategic defence partnership to build a class of nuclear-propelled submarines and work together in the Indo-Pacific region.

The AUKUS submarine is a strikingly aggressive and optimistic plan which seeks to fast-track Australia’s future submarine capability as quickly as possible in the face of a rising China.

The plan is hugely ambitious and commits Australia to acquiring two separate nuclear-powered submarines and creating a next generation defence industrial base in South Australia and Western Australia.

It is a plan which ticks many boxes, including forging closer long-term strategic links with Australia’s AUKUS partners, the US and the UK; feeding the local defence industry for decades and most importantly, moving as fast as possible to boost submarine capability.

However it contains many sweeping assumptions and many unknowns and will cost an eye watering $268 billion to $368 billion out until the mid-2050s.

The plan to acquire between three and five Virginia-Class submarines from the US from the early 2030s a crucial plank in the planned transition to a British-designed ‘SSN-AUKUS” submarine from the early 2040s.

But the purchase of Virginia-class boats will require congressional approval by a future US administration, for which there can be no certain guarantees. That is why the plan includes Australia investing many billions (up to $3 billion in the next four years for starters) in improving the US production line for the Virginia-class boats. This investment will help the US build their submarines faster, but it is also a political sweetener to curry support in Washington for the eventual purchase of the Virginia-class submarines.

US President Joe Biden (C), British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (R) and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (L) during the AUKUS summit in San Diego.

The plan seeks to move quickly to ramp up the massive training which will be required for Australia to support, sustain and crew the Virginia boats and then eventually the SSN-AUKUS submarines which will be built in Adelaide.

The planned timelines to acquire these capabilities are aggressive and optimistic, with the Virginia-class submarines planned to arrive in 2033, 2036 and 2039.

Meanwhile the first Australian SSN-AUKUS is scheduled to be completed in Adelaide in 2042 with new boats then built every three years until Australia has eight of them.

The Virginia-class boats would then be progressively retired between the mid-2050s and the mid to late 2060s.

The back-up plan to acquire two more Virginia-class boats will only occur if, and some would say when, the huge SSN-AUKUS project is delayed.

The plan seeks to increase allied submarine presence in Australia almost immediately with more visits to Perth by US submarines from next year and then rotations from 2027 including four Virginia boats and one British Astute submarine.

If this entire plan ran according to schedule then it would completely transform Australia’s defence for generations. We know, from history, that it won’t run to schedule. So the key is whether the AUKUS plan has enough failsafe back-up plans to carry it through the stormy waters that it will eventually encounter.

The back-up contingency plan for an extra two Virginia-class boats is an excellent start, because these can help plug Australia’s submarine capability in the event of major delays on the SSN-AUKUS project.

But there remain many imponderables which no one can accurately predict, including what a future US Congress might think about selling Virginia-class submarines to Australia.

Australia also needs to rely on future political support and goodwill from different US presidents and UK prime ministers for decades to come. And then there is the question of money, and whether there remains the political will in Australia to keep funding such an enormous project in the decades to come.

But the unveiling of plan by the three leaders is a powerful statement of intent and the plan itself is aggressive is it scope, ambition and optimism. And that is a good thing.