The latest delay means there will not be a decision on the future of the $30bn project until after the upcoming election, bringing into play some outcomes that were not previously on the table.
While the Albanese government has repeatedly said that Plibersek’s decision would be based only on the law, and not on politics, the political implications would have undoubtedly crossed Plibersek’s mind. Asking a politician not to consider the politics of a major decision is like asking a shark not to consider eating a baby seal: it is simply innate, instinctive and irresistible.
And if there were any doubts about the influence of politics in the decision-making process, they should be put to bed by the manner of the delay’s announcement. In a textbook example of “taking out the trash” – the practice of putting out difficult news at a time when the eyes of the media are elsewhere – the disclosure was made while the bulk of the nation’s media were holed up in budget lockups without internet access.
The expectation among long-term observers of the North West Shelf stand-off was that if Plibersek had made a decision by the end of this month, it most likely would have gone only one way. The Albanese government would have probably signed off on the extension to defuse the opposition’s attacks on it as anti-jobs and beholden to environmental activists. The government would have lost a bit of skin in some of its inner-city seats, but would have strengthened its position in the sort of job-hungry outer-metro areas seen by the Coalition as its path back to government.
Deferring the final call until after the election means there are now more possible outcomes on the table.
If the polling is accurate, the most likely of those is a Labor minority government that will have to rely on the support of the Greens and/or teals to govern. The Greens have already flagged that they will want to see the extension blocked as part of any deal, while teal MP Kate Chaney has long called for the project to be stopped.
Should the Albanese government hold on in its own right, Plibersek – the architect of the proposed Nature Positive laws that were strongly opposed by the mining and oil and gas sectors – would be able to make her decision without having to worry about the immediate ballot box implications.
Another possible outcome is a Coalition victory and Peter Dutton honouring his pledge to approve the North West Shelf within 30 days. That too, perversely, could be a win for the project’s opponents, who would be ready to hit the government within minutes with a court action alleging apprehended bias. The government has repeatedly warned that the Coalition’s pledge would give those opponents a strong legal case.
Woodside has already waited six years to learn whether it will be allowed to continue with the North West Shelf. It is going to be waiting for quite a bit longer.
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Tanya Plibersek’s decision to delay making a call on the North West Shelf extension is undoubtedly a win for the environmentalists and activists opposed to the project.