A betting guide to the 2022 federal election: The Coalition closes in

 

Betting markets on elections offer a different perspective to polling and can add weight to punditry.

We all know what happened last time. The polls were wrong and the markets in the early stages at least were a long way away from the final result. It was, however, in the last two weeks of the campaign in 2019 where the betting markets started showing that a surprise was in the offing.

The betting markets were instructive in 2019. While the head-to-head didn’t change up to polling day, leading one agency to pay on a Labor win the day before the election, individual seat betting revealed a marked shift to the Coalition especially in LNP-held Queensland marginals.

And so it transpired.

The electoral markets for the 2022 election have just been framed and we’ll have to wait a week or two to see any shift or trend one way or another.

After the election was called and perhaps in response to Albanese’s gaffes, the head-to-head market has shifted in the last 72 hours with the Coalition coming in from $3.10 to $2.40 and Labor moving out from $1.30 to $1.55, paying on which party supplies the prime minister in the 47th Parliament.

Compared to 2019, that is a sharp movement towards the Coalition.

Overall, the markets reveal a close contest is anticipated with Labor at $1.82 to form majority government, $4.40 to form minority government with the Coalition $3.75 and $5.10.

In a separate market, punters can bet on the prospect of a hung parliament ($2.55) or a majority government from either Labor or the Coalition at $1.60.

In seat range, the shortest quote is Labor to win 76-80 seats at $2.70 with the Coalition next on the line at $2.90 to win between 66 and 70 seats. To retain government with a narrow majority (76-80 seats), the Coalition is paying $5.50.

Labor needs eight seats to win government in its own right: seven with the nominal gain of the newly created seat of Hawke in Melbourne’s outer west.

An overall analysis of markets on Coalition-held marginal seats shows Labor leading in the betting in nine of them, two each in Western Australia, (Swan and Pearce), New South Wales (Reid and Robertson), and Tasmania (Braddon and Bass), and one apiece in Queensland (Longman), South Australia (Boothby) and Victoria (Chisholm).

Anthony Albanese at the Royal Easter Show with partner Jodie Haydon and farmer James Kemp. Picture: Monde Photography

These are early days, but the markets show Labor decisively leading only in three of those seats – Chisholm (Coalition $3.70, Labor $1.25), Pearce ($3.60, $1.25) and Swan ($3.55, $1.25). The other six -- Braddon ($1.95, $1.85), Bass ($2.00, $1.75), Boothby ($2.00, $1.60), Longman ($2.15, $1.65), Reid ($2.10, $1.70), Robertson ($1.95 $1.78) show Labor just in front. What market shifts occur in these seats may well reveal who wins the election.

After some big swings to the Coalition in the 2019 election, Labor holds more marginal seats than the Coalition – 18 to 14. The early markets in Labor held marginals show no losses are expected which is a bold projection. As the polling tightens and the wagers roll out, I expect some of the quotes to change. Some might change dramatically which means there’s some early value out there.

For example, the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro which Labor holds by less than one per cent is offering $6.00 for a Coalition win. The tightest marginal in the country is Macquarie in the Blue Mountains and Hawkesbury regions on Sydney’s western fringe where Labor holds the seat by just 0.2 per cent. The markets are offering $8.00 for a Coalition win.

In Queensland, Wayne Swan’s old seat of Lilley is currently held by Labor by 0.6 percent. The LNP are at $4.00 to win there. In Blair, a seat Labor holds by 1.2 percent, the LNP is paying $10.00.

In Victoria, the seat of Corangamite in Geelong and coastal townships on the Great Ocean Road, the Coalition is paying $3.65 to win the seat which Labor holds by just 1.0 percent. And in Dunkley where Labor’s margin is 2.7 per cent, the Coalition is paying $7.00 to win.

Betting agencies seem to struggle with independents and often leave themselves exposed. Zali Steggall’s win over Tony Abbott in Warringah in 2019 seemed very likely but the markets installed Abbott as a firm favourite. Punters who backed Steggall had big wins.

There were six crossbenchers in the 46th Parliament. Three of those have party affiliations – Bob Katter (KAP) in Kennedy, Adam Bandt (AG) in Melbourne and Rebecca Sharkie (Centre Alliance). This leaves three non-party affiliated independents – Andrew Wilkie in Clark (TAS), Helen Haines in Indi (VIC) and Steggall in Warringah (NSW).

In betting based on total independent seats in the new parliament, the markets favour the status quo with three indies at $3.55, four at $3.65 and five at $4.50 regardless of who wins and where. The three current independents are all unbackable favourites.

In the blue-ribbon seats in New South Wales where the Climate 200 independents are challenging, the Coalition is favoured to win them all with Allegra Spender $2.05 the closest of the underdogs to beat Dave Sharma at $1.70. Independent candidate Kylea Tink is $2.60 to beat the Coalition’s Trent Zimmerman at $1.50. In Mackellar on Sydney’s Upper North Shore, the sitting Liberal MP, Jason Falinski is $1.40 against the independent candidate, Sophie Scamps at $2.80.

Scott Morrison in the electorate of Lindsay located in the western suburbs of Sydney. Picture: Picture: Jason Edwards

In Victoria, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is $1.50 to beat Monique Ryan at $2.45 in Kooyong. In Goldstein, the Coalition’s Tim Wilson is $1.75 favourite to hold Goldstein over Zoe Daniel at $2.00.

In the southwestern Sydney seat of Hughes where the sitting member, Craig Kelly defected from the government benches to the crossbenches, the Coalition is firmly favoured to retain at $1.25 over independent Linda Seymour $6.00 with Kelly at $11.00 to win the seat for the UAP.

In Labor’s sky diving competition, eastern suburbs candidate, Andrew Charlton is $1.10 to the Coalition’s $6.00 to hold Parramatta while North Shore resident, Kristina Keneally is $1.33 to win the Liverpool-Cabramatta based seat of Fowler with a genuine local, independent candidate, Dai Le paying $4.00. That figure is set to shorten as Ms Le’s candidacy was only announced this week.

So, there you have it. That’s the starting point. I’ll be following up on trends and significant changes in the markets as they happen and prepare a weekly report.