O’Rourke has ‘it’ factor but America still unsure what it is

Beto O’Rourke has the ‘it’ factor but a winning campaign needs leadership and management skills that may be beyond him.

Democratic presidential candidate Beto O'Rourke addresses a meet-and-greet at Tuckerman Brewing in Conway, New Hampshire. Picture: Getty Images

Human nature being what it is, many candidates run for office the same way they did the last time. Take the 15th Democratic presidential candidate, former representative Robert Francis (Beto) O’Rourke.

When O’Rourke ran for the US Senate in Texas last year, he was an energetic, charismatic campaigner who visited all 254 counties in the state. He gave inspirational speeches to Democrats, heavy on appeals for unity and optimism but generally devoid of substance. He relied on breathlessly positive press coverage while adroitly using social media to establish a personal channel to supporters.

O’Rourke followed a similar pattern in his presidential campaign’s opening days, displaying enormous energy. He opened with a three-day, 15-city swing through Iowa, hitting rural counties that voted for Barack Obama before flipping to Donald Trump in 2016. This was followed by two days in larger Democratic strongholds in eastern Iowa. A battalion of reporters followed him. This week, he zoomed through all 10 New Hampshire counties in only two days.

Everywhere he goes, he is met by throngs of curious, enthusiastic Democrats. The lanky, 193cm tall Texan has had to stand on restaurant counters and chairs to address the crowds. He has again struck an aspirational tone, telling voters, “Let us not allow our differences to define us” and often responding to questions on issues by calling each one “an idea we should explore”. And the money has poured in, as it did during his Senate campaign. O’Rourke raised $US6.1m ($8.5m) in his first 24 hours in the contest.

Still, running the same kind of campaign a second time carries risks. Like Obama, who said he could “probably do every job on the campaign better than the people I’ll hire to do it”, O’Rourke seems to suspect he’s the smartest man around.

In his Senate race he made a point of not hiring consultants or pollsters. He could pull that off in Texas — though he lost — but running for president is a bigger enterprise by orders of magnitude. To win, O’Rourke must build a team of smart people and listen to them. That requires leadership and management skills that may be beyond the reach of a punk-rock musician turned web-services small-business founder turned politician — unless he changes tack. O’Rourke also had an advantage in Texas. Ted Cruz inexplicably ignored him, largely letting O’Rourke define himself on his own terms for 17 months.

This time it will be very different: his Democratic opponents have already dropped opposition-research packets on him and sent allies to his events to ask uncomfortable questions and subtly criticise him for his shallowness and elusiveness on the issues. Watch for intraparty rivals to make a bigger deal soon of his past congressional apostasies, such as means-testing entitlements and increasing Social Security’s eligibility age.

The biggest challenge for O’Rourke, however, is his recklessness. In his Senate race, speaking about professional footballers who refused to stand for the national anthem, he said, “I can think of nothing more American than to … take a knee”. Actually, most Texans and Americans can think of a thousand things more patriotic, starting with joining the military, helping a neighbour in need or standing for our flag.

This recklessness already has resurfaced on the 2020 trail. Last Friday O’Rourke told Democratic true believers in Mount Pleasant, Iowa, that America suffers under “an imperfect, unfair, unjust and racist capitalist economy”. That remark will come back to haunt him if he makes it to the general election.

Still, the Texan is a serious player. He has “it” — that elusive quality of celebrity, authenticity and style that draws voters in this wild era. What’s unproven is whether O’Rourke will be one of the four or five candidates at most who can consistently garner the 15 per cent vote share required to win delegates in Democratic contests. The Democrats’ crowded primary may last a long time, and recklessness rarely produces endurance.

Karl Rove twice masterminded the election of George W. Bush.

The Wall Street Journal