Truly dramatic long-term changes taking place in global power and economic landscapes
Prepare for an explosion of surprising changes across the world stage.
This week South Korea suddenly emerged on the world stage, but on the US domestic front the abandonment of ‘woke’ management practices by one of the great captains of the cause – Walmart – is just as stunning.
Accordingly, today I want to take you on a journey outside my commentary comfort zone – the truly dramatic long-term changes taking place in the power and economic landscape as a result of wars in Ukraine and Israel, plus the Trump presidency.
Russia and Iran are now trapped in very tight corners.
Incoming US President Donald Trump, without mentioning Iran, has effectively warned Iran’s administration to arrange the release of the hostages held by its proxy Hamas in Gaza or face severe consequences.
The Russia and Iran entrapment means Europe, China and the Middle East could be transformed.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin heads a Russia where 40 per cent of government expenditure is now being directed to war in Ukraine. The cost of living has risen by about 25 per cent and the Russian Central Bank at the end of October raised its key interest rate from 19 per cent to 21 per cent.
There maybe more to come. The Russian ruble has tanked.
The front line resembles a World War 1-style stalemate. At least 115,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and 500,000 wounded since February 2022.
Russia has taken back some of the territory captured by Ukraine in the Kursk region, but that too is now at a stalemate.
Putin’s failed aim to remove Ukraine from its territory reportedly had caused 80,000 new causalities in October/November – North Koreans soldiers were unsuccessful and became troop fodder for the drive to take back Kursk. It’s a long time since we’ve seen a nation like North Korea rail vast numbers of its troops to a foreign land, only to see those troops killed or badly wounded.
Ukraine has regained control of the sea lanes and can export its grain.
The Russian economy is now so war dependent that “peace”, which might see it gain territory, could trigger an implosion of the Russian economy.
Almost certainly president-elect Trump knows this as does Chinese President Xi Jinping who back in February 2023 saw the possibility of an eventual Russian implosion and so instructed China’s Ministry of Natural Resources to issue new map regulations that replace the current Russian names of eight places along the Russian-Chinese border with Chinese names.
Heading the list was the great Russian Pacific port city of Vladivostok which was called Hai Shen Wai before Russia annexed it in 1860 during the second opium war, under threat to set Beijing ablaze. If Xi wants to reverse the 1860 “injustice” there is nothing Putin can do about it on his eastern flank.
On the western flank, most Russian troops have been removed from the border with Finland. Finland is unlikely to invade Russia, but there are no substantial Russian troop numbers on the ground to stop it.
On the other hand, Russia is an atomic power with a dictator in charge who is cornered. It’s dangerous.
In the Middle East, at huge cost, Israel has achieved a stunning victory, the implications of which are only now becoming apparent.
Not only are Iran’s proxies Hezbollah and Hamas shattered, but Israel and the US now have the ability to bomb out of existence Iran’s nuclear capacity, large areas of its oil industry and the leadership of Iran.
That’s why Trump is giving Iran notice that the US wants the hostages released, or Iran will face the consequences.
Remember this is not spelled out, but Iran knows its vulnerability. Whether Iran can still control Hamas has still to be tested.
Prior to the Israel war, Iran was a dominant force in the Middle East via its proxies. Its influence and that of Russia in Syria is now under challenge, and a whole new set of alliances and forces will emerge.
These international revolutions are taking place amid a dramatic social revolution in the US, which was graphically described by Nick Cater under the heading Trump’s reset has already hit Corporate America. America’s largest retailer Walmart will now make staff appointments purely on merit, regardless of race gender or sexual identity. It will not make suppliers adopt such non-merit practices.
One of the captains of ‘woke’ in Australia, Woolworths currently has its own industrial relations distractions but what is happening in the US will filter down under.
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