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ASX 200 down on BHP, Rio shedding; Sigma soars after ACCC offer; retail sales jump; Powell signals more rate cuts

Sigma rockets on ACCC compromise to get $8.8bn merger with Chemist Warehouse across the line. Treasury Wine caves in to proxy demand on CEO bonus. Warmest August since 1910 sees retail sales lift 0.7 per cent. 

Economic commentary, overseas updates are keeping equity investors busy. Picture: Gaye Gerard
Economic commentary, overseas updates are keeping equity investors busy. Picture: Gaye Gerard

Welcome to the Trading Day blog for Tuesday, October 1. The ASX 200 index closed 0.7 per cent lower to 8208.90 points on weak miners and banks.

The Aussie dollar is near US69.28c at 5pm AEST.

Updates

ASX dips 0.7pc; Sigma soars

The ASX 200 index closed 0.7 per cent lower to 8208.90 points on mining and banking falls.

The materials index lost 2.3 per cent. BHP is down 2.9 per cent to $44.64, Fortescue lost 3.5 per cent to $19.96 and Rio Tinto is 2.6 per cent lower to $125.74.

The financials index closed down 1.2 per cent. CBA dipped 1.5 per cent lower to $133.34, NAB shed 0.6 per cent to $37.13, Westpac lost 1.7 per cent to $31.19 and ANZ closed 1.1 per cent lower to $30.15.

Sigma Healthcare shares soared 22.6 per cent to $1.77 on news it will allow new franchisees to break their deals without penalties to assist with Sigma's $8.8bn merger and backdoor listing with Chemist Warehouse.

Qantas dipped 23.4 per cent to $7.17 after Qatar Airways acquired 25 per cent of Qantas rival Virgin Australia.

Supermarket majors Woolworths and Coles continued bouncing back from major selloffs following the ACCC taking action. Woolworths closed 0.5 per cent higher to $33.47 and Coles gained 0.6 per cent to $18.16.

The health care index performed best on Tuesday, closing 1.1 per cent higher. CSL rose 0.7 per cent to $288.21, Resmed is now 1.5 per cent higher to $35.51 and Cochlear gained 3.3 per cent to $291.42.

ANZ Bank's savings change 'double-edged sword'

ANZ Bank's changes to its ANZ Plus Save account have been described as a "double-edged sword for savers".

The bank on Tuesday slashed the ongoing interest rate to 0.5 per cent, unless customers grow their balance by $100 or more each month. New and existing ANZ Plus Save customers who meet the new condition will get a bonus 4.50 per cent, taking the maximum ongoing rate to 5.00 per cent. Previously, the ongoing rate was 4.90 per cent on balances less than $250,000 and 3.75 per cent thereafter, "with no strings attached", rates monitor RateCity says.

ANZ also introduced a new account, the ANZ Plus Flex Saver, with an ongoing rate of 5 per cent for balances under $5000 and 2.00 per cent above that.

RateCity noted that the ACCC's final report on its retail deposits inquiry, handed down in December last year, revealed that in the first six months of 2023, on average 71 per cent of bonus interest accounts did not receive bonus interest in any given month.

"This move from ANZ is a double-edged sword," RateCity.com.au money editor Laine Gordon said. "People who can squirrel away an extra $100 or more each month into their ANZ Plus Save account will be rewarded with a rate hike. Others who can't squeeze any extra savings from their budget, however, will see their savings goals take a major hit," she said.

She is recommending finding an account that fits in with finances. "If the monthly terms and conditions are hurdles you can’t jump easily, then instead look for something that better suits your lifestyle," she said.

Treasury Wine caves in to proxy demand on CEO bonus

Shares in Treasury Wine Estates are down 2.5 per cent to $11.71 after the winemaker gave in to proxy advisor CGI Glass Lewis' demands to set more challenging targets on long term incentives for chief executive Tom Ford.

Chairman John Mullen's letter to investors, released on Tuesday, states that the targets have been amended taking heed of investor comments and concerns "while we stand by our original assessment of the FY25 LTIP (long-term incentive plan) targets as being fair and reasonable".

CGI Glass Lewis had recommended voting against the remuneration report and the CEO's LTIP grant at TWE’s 2024 annual general meeting on October 17.

"If other proxy advisors were to align with CGI Glass Lewis and their recommendations for this year’s AGM are followed by investors, and the performance rights grant to the CEO is voted down, this will potentially leave us without a LTIP programme for the CEO for the FY25 year," Mr Mullen said. "This is a situation which we cannot possibly see as being beneficial for shareholders. TWE's CEO, Tim Ford, is an excellent executive doing an excellent job. The board firmly believes in aligning executive rewards with strong performance, and we see the CEO's motivation and continued leadership as crucial to delivering value for all shareholders".

CGI's concerns included that management had not "provided assurance" that the FY24 and FY25 LTIP grants would be adjusted for the "windfall gains" that would ensue following the removal of tariffs in China. Treasury Wine has said any incremental earnings contribution due to the reopening of China to Australian wine will be excluded from LTIP calculations for the FY22, FY23, and FY24 years, so there will be no unintended benefit to management.

While the FY25 targets had been set with the adjustment, Mr Mullen acknowledged the concern particularly around the earnings per share (EPS) vesting target of 100 per cent at a compound annual growth rate of 10 per cent "is still considered "unchallenging"". "In this instance, we acknowledge that the EPS hurdle set as part of the FY25 LTIP grant is below the internal targets that we have set TWE's management team."

Under the revisions, for Mr Ford to receive all of his EPS-linked bonus, he will have to achieve at or above 15 per cent EPS CAGR (instead of 10 per cent), with incremental vesting only starting from the 8 per cent mark (previously 6 per cent). And the return on capital employed (ROCE) incentive will only be paid in full if the result is at or above 14 per cent with ROCE percentage points growth at or above 3.1 (from 13 per cent and 2.1 percentage points, previously).

Rio, BHP see net zero tailwinds

The push for Western economies to re-industrialise combined with the enormous minerals demands from the transition to net zero will provide strong tailwinds for the mining sector for decades to come, both Rio Tinto and BHP believe.

Rio chief executive Jakob Stausholm, speaking at the London Metals Exchange (LME) on Monday UK time, said “the energy transition is at the heart of Rio Tinto’s strategy’’, while re-industrialisation and an increase in both supply and demand from the Global South were the large themes shaping the minerals industry over the longer term.

Meanwhile BHP, in an insights document released this week, said it believes global copper demand will grow by about 70 per cent out to 2050 to more than 50 million tonnes per year.

At 1pm AEST, shares in the two iron ore majors are down nearly 3 per cent with Rio near $125.78 and BHP at $44.71.

Housing target slips as dwelling approvals fall

The total number of dwellings approved fell 6.1 per cent in August to 13,991, after an 11.0 per cent rise in July, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

ABS' head of construction statistics Daniel Rossi said the result was driven by a 16.5 per cent fall in approvals for private dwellings, excluding houses.

"The movements in dwellings excluding houses continue to be the result of volatility in apartment approvals, with the broad environment around apartments remaining subdued," he said.

"Today's ABS data proves that the great Australian dream is slipping further away," according to the Institute of Public Affairs, a Liberal Party-aligned public policy think tank. It says the federal government is already 30 per cent below the required 20,000 average monthly approvals required to meet its 1.2 million new homes commitment by 2029.

Private sector house approvals rose 0.5 per cent to 9338 dwellings, to be 8.4 per cent higher than August 2023, the ABS data shows.

Retail sales rise 0.7pc in August

Retail sales rose 0.7 per cent in August month-on-month, beating consensus forecasts of 0.4 per cent according to new data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

It comes after retail turnover grew just 0.1 per cent in July.

ABS head of business statistics Robert Ewing said: "Retail spending was boosted this month by warmer-than-usual weather for this time of year.

"This year was the warmest August on record since 1910, which saw more spending on items typically purchased in spring. This included summer clothing, liquor, outdoor dining, hardware, gardening items, camping goods and outdoor equipment."

The RBA has consistently warned it household spending needs to come down in order to reduce inflation to lower interest rates, with new minutes to be published next week.

ASX down 0.4pc; miners worst off

The ASX 200 index is down 0.4 per cent to 8238.60 points at noon AEST on mining and banking falls.

The materials index has dipped 1.9 per cent. BHP has shed 2.5 per cent to $44.80, Fortescue is down 2.2 per cent to $20.24 and Rio Tinto is 2.6 per cent lower to $125.73.

The financials index is 0.8 per cent lower. CBA is 1.1 per cent lower to $133.94, NAB is down 0.5 per cent to $37.15, Westpac has lost 1 per cent to $31.40 and ANZ is down 0.8 per cent to $30.23.

Among newsmakers, Sigma Healthcare shares have rocketed 16.3 per cent to $1.68 on news it will allow new franchisees to break their deals without penalties in order to assist with Sigma's $8.8bn merger and backdoor listing with Chemist Warehouse.

Qantas shares have so far lost 2.7 per cent to $7.22 after Qatar Airways acquired 25 per cent of Qantas rival Virgin Australia.

Shars in major supermarkets Woolworths and Coles have continued their recovery from major selloffs following the ACCC taking action against them. Woolworths is 0.5 per cent higher to $33.48 and Coles has gained 0.4 per cent to $18.14.

Health companies are performing best so far on Tuesday, with the index 1.3 per cent higher. CSL has gained 1.2 per cent to $289.60, Resmed is 2.2 per cent higher to $35.75 and Cochlear is up 2.5 per cent to $289.23.

Experian completes $820m acquisition

UK-listed Experian has completed the $820m acquisition of credit reporting bureau illion after receiving ACCC approval in August this year.

Experian’s local boss Andrew Black will take charge of both businesses under the acquisition, with illion’s 500 staff to begin reporting to him while illion chief executive John Banfield will step down.

The acquisition adds to Experian's global portfolio which includes 23 credit bureaus including outfits in the UK, the US and Brazil.

Lottery Corp flags Sat Lotto changes

Shares in the Lottery Corporation are down about 1 per cent to $5.08 after chief executive Sue van der Merwe told investors at its annual general meeting she was "pleased with the start to FY25" and outlined two new initiatives, subject to approvals.

"We've seen a stabilisation and signs of improvement in lottery sales for similar offers across the base games," she said. "Keno has continued its good momentum and sales for the $100 million Powerball draw in August were above the equivalent draw in May."

The group will continue to "actively manage the portfolio to maximise game performance, including our prize offers, based on market conditions."

The group will also planning changes to its Saturday Lotto offering, the second most popular game in its portfolio. "This is part of our normal evolution of our games, and would include a change to the price and the Division 1 offer," she said.

It will also introduce Charitable Games products into The Lott’s digital ecosystem, meaning customers can buy a Play For Purpose ticket to support their charity of choice, for example, through The Lott app.

Banks return to lending competition

Housing credit growth will remain "robust" in the coming months, while business lending is expected to slow, according to Macquarie analysts.

In a note to investors, Macquarie says banks are leaning on their liabilities to skew returns, noting banks are again competing on lending.

"We suspect banks will need to pull the price lever to avoid market share losses," Macquarie says.

"In our view, this potentially creates downside risk to broadly flat consensus margins in FY25, which do not appear to incorporate lending competition pressures and the impact of potential rate cuts in 2025."

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/trading-day/asx-200-down-on-mining-falls-sigma-soars-after-accc-offer-retail-sales-ahead-powell-signals-more-rate-cuts/live-coverage/4f7150dadc93515c7dfdc7de67a39221