Will Donald Trump blow another election?
As Kamala Harris rises in the polls, the former President doesn’t know how to respond.
Republicans are wondering if Donald Trump made a mistake in choosing J.D. Vance as his running mate. But the more urgent and consequential question for Republicans with 90 days left in the campaign is whether Mr. Trump is going to blow another presidential race he should win.
The economic and security fundamentals are teed up for a Republican victory. Voters and especially the working class are unhappy with the economy, as average real incomes have declined across the Biden Presidency. The chaos at the border has spread to cities around the country.
The Administration’s insistence on imposing progressive cultural policies by diktat has produced resentment and a strong counter-reaction. Wars are raging in Europe and the Middle East, and China menaces in the Western Pacific. All of this has voters unhappy about the state of the country and looking for change.
Yet with three months to go before Election Day, Kamala Harris and the Democrats have erased the lead Mr. Trump had over President Biden. She’s now leading in the national polls, and tied or narrowly behind in the crucial swing states. The same press that covered for Mr. Biden’s infirmities until it was no longer possible has swung in behind her. She may not do another interview, much less get a tough question, through November.
One reason for the surge for Ms. Harris is Democrats coming home in relief from their depression about Mr. Biden. But at age 59 she also presents a youthful contrast to 78-year-old Mr. Trump, who has now been on the presidential stage for nearly a decade. She’s trying to steal the “change” mantle with her focus on the future, and she’ll succeed if Republicans can’t wrap her in the Biden record and her progressive San Francisco views.
The Trump campaign knows this, but the problem is the candidate. Mr. Trump has his passionate followers who don’t want to hear a discouraging word. Yet the political reality is that he has a ceiling of support that is below 50% because so many Americans dislike him. And now that he is in the news every day campaigning, he is reminding those voters why they didn’t vote to re-elect him in 2020.
Ms. Harris in particular seems to have unnerved him as he scrambles but fails to find an attack line that works. He’s said she “doesn’t like Jewish people,” though her husband is Jewish. He’s attacked her racial identity, which alienates swing voters. He calls her “low IQ” and “dumb,” as if the school-yard insult will persuade anyone.
As the race has tightened, he’s also picking gratuitous fights the way he did in 2020 during Covid. In Georgia on Saturday, he attacked GOP Gov. Brian Kemp and even Mr. Kemp’s wife because he says they’re not loyal enough. Mr. Trump narrowly lost Georgia in 2020, and to win it this year he needs the help of Mr. Kemp’s get-out-the-vote organization. You almost wonder if Mr. Trump is setting up an excuse for his defeat as he sees the polls tightening in Georgia.
Mr. Trump is still griping about his impeachments and the Democratic prosecutions against him that are now in limbo. His rally speeches are a bundle of personal grievances and impulsive floundering that drown out any consistent message against Vice President Harris. He is also helping her by saying little about what he’d do in a second term, beyond replaying the promises of his first term.
Mr. Trump seems to think he’s still leading in the polls against a feeble incumbent. That overconfidence is what led him to choose Mr. Vance, who hasn’t reassured voters on the fence about Mr. Trump. The former President doesn’t seem to realize he’s now in a close race that requires discipline and a consistent message to prevail. And his struggles are hurting GOP candidates for the House and Senate.
All of this underscores the risk that GOP voters took in nominating Mr. Trump for a third time. They had younger alternatives who would have been fresher voices and could have served two terms. But primary voters wanted to nominate Mr. Trump as a quasi-incumbent who they came to believe had his second term stolen by the Covid election.
This bet was paying off against Mr. Biden, but that race is over. Ms. Harris and her new running mate are still far to the left of the American people, if Republicans have the discipline to inform voters. This is still Mr. Trump’s election to lose but, as we learned in 2020, he’s more than capable of doing it.
The Wall Street Journal
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