Will a Democrat challenge Joe Biden for 2024?

US President Joe Biden has made it clear he won’t go gently into that good night. Picture: AFP.

Joe Biden is running. Though some have called on him not to seek re-election in 2024 for the good of the Democratic Party — including three New York Times columnists in the past week — most observers know what one of those columnists, Maureen Dowd, acknowledged: The 46th president is in no mood to listen.

Democrats who want the president to step aside have good arguments, from polls showing most Democrats want someone else atop the 2024 ticket to legitimate fears about Mr Biden’s health. But those arguments aren’t going anywhere. And they won’t so long as there is no Democrat willing to primary him.

For most of the past year, when inflation was higher and Mr Biden’s job approval was lower, the presumption was that the party would ease him out. That would in turn clear the way for candidates to emerge. There’s no shortage of possibilities, either: Vice President Kamala Harris, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro are just a few.

US Vice President Kamala Harris is one of a number of candidates who could stand against Joe Biden. Picture: AFP.

It’s still possible. The deadlines to get on state primary ballots aren’t until late fall, which is a long time in politics. The economy could go south. With Moscow, Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran all in a belligerent mood, the administration could find itself facing another conflict that reminds voters of the humiliating retreat from Afghanistan.

Here at home, meanwhile, there is a clear dissonance between the American people’s definition of success and Washington’s. Take last week’s State of the Union address. The Beltway consensus deems it a big hit: Mr Biden skilfully using his platform to tout his accomplishments and bait some Republican members of Congress into responding boorishly to his remarks.

That’s to be expected. The State of the Union is a creature of Washington, which, for all its pageantry, is largely forgotten two days later. When it is remembered, it’s almost never for a flash of rhetorical brilliance but for some tangential drama, such as Speaker Nancy Pelosi tearing up Mr Trump’s speech or Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene calling Mr Biden a liar.

Yes, the State of the Union is the president’s biggest speech of the year — but even here it’s not what it used to be. Nielsen reports that 27.3 million Americans tuned in to Mr Biden last Tuesday. That’s down by 10 million from last year, and the smallest audience for an official State of the Union in 30 years. It’s still large but it underscores an enthusiasm gap for Mr Biden.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks to reporters. Picture: Getty Images via AFP.

Likewise the president’s “legislative achievements.” Outside Washington, no one cares about legislative achievements. What people care about is policies that deliver results they can see and feel in their own lives. In this light a Washington Post/ABC News poll released this month is bracing. It reports that 62 per cent of Americans say Mr Biden has accomplished “not very much” or “little or nothing.”

The White House response seems to be premised on the idea that all Mr Biden has to do is brag a little more and the public will come around to his view of his own greatness. It’s the usual Washington approach of thinking that substance and policies don’t matter, that with the right messaging you can fool enough people enough of the time.

Only days after the poll showing huge scepticism about Mr Biden’s achievements, a follow-up reported that only 31 per cent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents want Mr Biden to run again, compared with 58 per cent who want someone else — numbers that have remained roughly steady since September. The president is taking no chances: He has rigged the primaries so that the state that rescued his candidacy (South Carolina) in the 2016 primaries will now go first, making it harder for any challenger to jump out in front early.

Former US President Donald Trump with US Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) during a 2024 election campaign event in Columbia, South Carolina. Picture: AFP.

In days past, presidential poll numbers like this practically guaranteed a Democratic primary challenger. In 1979, whe n Sen. Ted Kennedy challenged President Jimmy Carter for the Democratic nomination he looked unstoppable. Mr Carter ended up winning — but he had to fight for it.

Republicans, by contrast, had a habit of running their presidential primaries like an Elks Lodge — with the nomination going to the member who’d waited his turn. That’s how Republicans got nominees such as Bob Dole in 1996 and John McCain in 2008.

Then in 2016 the parties flipped scripts. Donald Trump’s entry into the race transformed the GOP primaries into “The Hunger Games.” While over at the Democratic Party word went out that Hillary Clinton was to be coroneted, not challenged. The result was that only gadflies such as Bernie Sanders entered the breach.

Whatever the reality today, Joe Biden sees himself as a strong, transformative president, especially after the midterms — or at least stronger than any potential challenger. He is now making clear he won’t go gentle into that good night. If Democrats really want someone different atop their 2024 ticket, they need first to come up with a candidate strong enough to take the nomination from him.

The Wall St Journal