Why Israel needs more than Iron Dome to thwart Iranian attack

Israel and the US have stitched together a bigger air defence system for a possible multifront assault that will present the biggest test yet for Israel.

Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome air defence system over northern Israel on Sunday. Picture: Jalaa Marey / AFP

Israel is preparing for a co-ordinated attack from Iran and its allies that will present the biggest test yet for a multilayered air defence system that has had to expand far beyond the country’s vaunted Iron Dome system.

In the past decade, the US-Israel-developed Iron Dome has become the world’s leading system for shooting down short-range rockets, reducing the threat from weapons fired by Washington-designated terrorist groups such as Hamas to population centres.

Iran and Lebanon-based Hezbollah’s capabilities are another matter. Iran has drones and ballistic missiles that Iron Dome isn’t designed to stop. And Hezbollah has an arsenal with tens of thousands of mortars, rockets and precision-guided missiles that could threaten to overwhelm the country’s defences.

Israel’s Iron Dome air-defence system is made up of mobile batteries that must be moved around Israel. Picture: Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu/Getty Images/WSJ

The Iron Dome air defence system intercepted rockets in northern Israel that had been fired from southern Lebanon in June. Picture: Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty Images

In response, Israel and the US have stitched together a bigger air defence system that draws upon the capabilities of Israeli, American and other air forces, radar systems in neighbouring countries and even relying on those Arab states – once sworn enemies – to shoot down Iranian projectiles.

“It’s an entire system that is synchronised and works like a clock,” said Yehoshua Kalisky, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a think tank in Tel Aviv. He said that he believed Israel was relatively well prepared for a major attack.

Much of it is co-ordinated through Central Command, which is responsible for US military operations in the Middle East. Israel was brought into the Centcom geographic zone in 2021 allowing it more ability to co-ordinate with Arab countries with which it doesn’t have international relations. The military activity is co-ordinated through both Centcom’s headquarters in Florida and a station in Qatar.

This system was put to the test in April when Israel with the help of countries such as the US, the UK and France was able to shoot down an Iranian barrage of more than 300 projectiles including drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles with what it said was a 99 per cent interception rate. Only one person was seriously injured in that attack. Iran said it was able to destroy key military targets of the Israeli army and that it had been effective in demonstrating it can break through Israel’s defence systems.

This time US officials are worried that an Iranian assault may be accompanied with even more synchronised strikes from Hezbollah and Tehran’s other allies in the region, including the Yemen-based Houthis and militias in Iraq in an attempt to overwhelm Israeli defence systems.

Iran and Hezbollah are expected to attack Israel in response to the targeted killing in Beirut of Fuad Shukr, a top Hezbollah commander, and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, an attack Iran accused Israel of carrying out.

One of the expected difficulties in dealing with a large, multifront barrage is the need to quickly classify the many different targets and decide what needs to be shot down. All in real time.

Analysts say Israel’s multilayered air-defence system, much of which it developed alongside the US, is built for such an eventuality -- composed of several parts aimed at confronting different types of threats ranging from short-range rockets to more sophisticated ballistic missiles.

One of the newest systems, David’s Sling, covers short-to-long range missiles, drones and aircraft and was jointly developed by Israel’s state-owned Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and RTX’s Raytheon in the US The Arrow 3, considered the crown jewel of the system, intercepts long-range ballistic missiles that leave the earth’s atmosphere, while an earlier version of the Arrow known as Arrow 2 is still used for medium-to-long-range missile threats.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with an Arrow-3 ballistic missile interceptor in 2019. Picture: Tomer Appelbaum/Press Pool/WSJ

Arrow 3 was used for the first time in November 2023, when it intercepted a Houthi missile, and David’s Sling was first used just before the current war in May 2023 to intercept a rocket launched from Gaza, the Israeli military said.

One weak spot in Israel’s air defences is drones, especially if they come in swarms, due to their ability to fly low and evade radar systems. A drone launched by the Houthis from Yemen evaded Israeli defences and struck Tel Aviv in July, killing a civilian. Hezbollah has shown that it can launch surveillance drones that map cities in northern Israel including sensitive military sites.

Israel has been developing a new system called the Iron Beam, which uses a laser to shoot down projectiles which security experts believe could be effective in countering drones. The system isn’t operational, but some officials believe it could be ready as soon as 2025.

As Iran and Hezbollah threaten Israel with severe retaliation and Israelis brace themselves for long stays in bomb shelters and stock up on essential supplies, Israel’s air defence system has been put on high alert and the country is hoping to match the success of April’s interceptions once again.

“The first attack broke a psychological barrier in Iran,” said Tal Inbar, a senior analyst at the US-based Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, adding that both Israel and Iran had learned lessons from it.

One reason Israel so successfully confronted April’s barrage is that it had several hours of intelligence-based-warning before the attack began. “If they want to maximise damage, they won’t allow for long advanced warning time,” Inbar said, referring to Iran.

Israeli military personnel examining part of an Iranian ballistic missile near the southern city of Arad, Israel, in April. Photo: OREN ZIV/AFP/Getty Images

Another lesson is that Israel relies on other countries for optimal air defence. “We learned that our system works and we learned that it worked well with the American system. It wasn’t only Israel but also mainly the United States and other allies that helped defend Israel,” said Uzi Rubin, the former head of Israel’s missile defence unit and one of the founders of the country’s air defence programs.

In a sign of close co-operation between the two countries, the Centcom Commander, Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, visited Israel this week and met with top Israeli security officials. US officials have also been working behind the scenes to avoid an all-out war with the Biden administration careful not to publicly criticise Israel’s Tehran operation, but pressing all sides to de-escalate.

An Israeli reservist who handles air-defence systems told the Journal that he couldn’t remember “such a scale of defensive preparedness for a war in the north.” In recent days the Israeli military has also rolled out a new alert system for the public for instructions in case of a large-scale emergency event.

While Israel’s aerial defence system is effective it isn’t cheap. Kalisky previously estimated that the interception of Iran’s missile and drone barrage in April at 2.1 billion Israeli shekels, or more than $US550 million ($844m).

– Benoit Faucon contributed to this article.

Dow Jones Newswires