What to expect in the 2022 midterms

Here’s what I’ll be looking for Tuesday as I watch election returns at Fox News in New York.

When polls close on Tuesday at 6pm (9am Wednesday, AEDT) parts of Indiana and Kentucky (both states are split between time zones), I’ll compare what each Democrat and Republican hopeful receives to what their parties’ presidential candidate got in 2020. That’s something to watch across the board. In districts or states where Joe Biden’s margin is smaller than this year’s Democratic candidates’, that indicates it could be a bad night for their party.

At 7pm, polls close in four states as well as the rest of Indiana and Kentucky and part of Florida. I’ll focus on Georgia to see by how much Governor Brian Kemp is beating Stacey Abrams. The bigger Mr Kemp’s margin, the better Herschel Walker’s chances to win the Senate seat. If neither he nor Senator Raphael Warnock gets more than 50 per cent of the vote, the election goes to a December 6 runoff.

Virginia also closes at that time, with three high-profile House races. If the GOP takes one seat, it’ll point to a good night nationally, two seats to a great night, and three to a blowout. I’ll also start matching the final polls with outcomes to see if surveys under-polled Republicans.

At 7.30pm, North Carolina and Ohio polls close. Republicans must win both Senate races. I’ll compare Tuesday’s returns with 2020’s totals.

At 8pm, voting ends in 16 states, parts of five others and the District of Columbia. Pennsylvania could decide the Senate. It’s a state Mr Biden won by only 1.18 per cent, and I’ll check Tuesday’s returns against his 2020 margin to see how Mehmet Oz and John Fetterman are doing. But Pennsylvania’s mail-in ballot rules may make it hard to tell.

Those votes can’t be opened and verified until 7am the day of the election, then counted after polls close. In 2020 their numbers were so overwhelming that they took days to count. While the in-person Election Day votes broke 66 per cent for Donald Trump, the mail-ins went 77 per cent for Mr Biden. If the Senate race is tight and vote-counters meet a similar mass of mail-ins, we may not know who won for days.

Republican Georgia Governor Brian Kemp is expected to defeat Stacey Abrams. Picture: AFP

The last Florida polls close at 8pm. I’ll look to see how strong a 2024 launch Gov. Ron DeSantis gets – I suspect it’ll be Canaveral-worthy. There are other points worth watching too. Does Sen. Marco Rubio’s margin confirm Florida’s deepening redness? Does the GOP pick up three or four House seats? Does it carry heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade County?

I’ll also keep an eye on New Hampshire. Late polling says its Senate race could be sliding toward the GOP. Republicans also hope to flip Rhode Island’s Second Congressional District, Connecticut’s Fifth, Maine’s Second and New Jersey’s Seventh, all of which report at 8pm.

A blockbuster group of states close at 9pm, perhaps settling the Senate’s fate. If the GOP keeps Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson, it’s hard to see Democrats getting above 50 seats. As with Messrs. Walker and Kemp in Georgia, Blake Masters’s fate in his Senate race in Arizona could well depend on Kari Lake’s run for governor.

Pennsylvania Governor and Democratic candidate for US Senator John Fetterman faces Republican candidate Dr Mehmet Oz. Picture: AFP

At that hour, we’ll also see if Republicans get a gigantic upset for New York governor. Rising crime has energised that race and could help the GOP flip up to four House seats in the Empire State. If there’s a Senate shocker, it could be then in Colorado or at 11pm in Washington state. The Republicans probably won’t take either seat, but don’t be shocked if they scoop up one. Michigan features a high-profile abortion initiative: How will that affect the state’s gubernatorial contest? I’ll also look at the three Republican Latinas running for South Texas House seats and watch Gov. Greg Abbott thrash Democrat Robert Francis O’Rourke.

We’ll get a peek at Mr Trump’s 2024 potential at 9pm too. Michigan and Arizona GOP attorney general and secretary of state hopefuls – and the Nevada secretary of state candidate – are running on the purest expression of his core message: The 2020 election was stolen and Mr Trump is the legitimate president.

At 10pm, Nevada rolls in. The GOP’s best Senate pickup opportunity, Adam Laxalt, is helped by Sheriff Joe Lombardo’s gubernatorial bid. The GOP also hopes to win one or more of three Democratic House seats in the Las Vegas area.

At 11pm, the remaining West Coast states report. Oregon Republicans might snag their first gubernatorial victory since 1982 and may pick up two or three congressional seats. The same hour, California Republicans look to defend five House seats and grab perhaps three Democratic seats.

This midterm’s gravitational forces – inflation, the economy, crime, border security, Mr Biden’s approval rating, voters’ feelings about the direction the country is headed – all work to the GOP’s advantage. That will deliver the House and probably flip the Senate. Take a nap Tuesday afternoon, have snacks ready, and be prepared for surprises. See you ringside!

Karl Rove helped organise the political-action committee American Crossroads and is author of The Triumph of William McKinley (Simon & Schuster, 2015).

The Wall Street Journal