US unimpressed with Ukraine’s victory plan

Kyiv’s proposal focuses on weapons and loosening restrictions on long-range missiles, Western officials say.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly in New York City on September 25, 2024. (Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP)

The Biden administration is concerned Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky’s plan for winning the war against Russia lacks a comprehensive strategy and is little more than a repackaged request for more weapons and the lifting of restrictions on long-range missiles, US officials said.

For months, the Ukraine President billed the plan as a framework to defeat Russia, and he was set to brief President Joe Biden on the specifics overnight on Thursday during a White House meeting, the first time the Biden administration will get to hear the framework in its entirety.

Senior US and European officials knowledgeable of the broad outlines of the plan say it offers no clear path to a Ukraine victory, particularly as Russian forces make slow but steady gains on the battlefield.

“I’m unimpressed, there’s not much new there,” one official said.

While the US and Ukraine hoped to be united on a way forward, they find themselves at a crucial point in the war without a shared vision. The divisions between Kyiv and Washington come amid disagreements among the US and its allies about lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to use long-range missiles inside Russian territory.

A centrepiece of the plan requires the US to give Ukraine the green light to use the weapons as Kyiv sees fit, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said. Without that authority, he said, Ukraine’s proposals would ultimately be “less relevant” because Kyiv would struggle to respond to continued Russian assaults.

Ukraine’s plan broadly covers its needs on the battlefield, political overhauls inside the country, and the economy, a senior State Department official said on Tuesday. US and European officials said the most developed part of the plan was the first phase – the requests related to weapons – while the other key elements had fewer specifics.

Mr Biden has for months refused to budge on Ukraine’s longstanding request to lift restrictions on US- and Britain-provided long-range missiles, which would allow its forces to strike military targets deep inside Russia. Mr Biden has dug in his heels despite urging by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, as US administration officials assert such weapons won’t prove a strategic-game changer and could possibly encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to escalate the war.

The US position has faced stiff pushback from several European leaders who believe that, after 2½ years, Ukraine has earned the right to counter Russian forces without any hindrances. Speaking on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly this week, some world leaders were visibly frustrated.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen on Wednesday said the conflict was at a “crossroads” and criticised the West for wasting time talking about “red lines” while Russia advanced on the battlefield. “We need to ensure Ukraine can win this war,” she said, urging Western leaders to give Ukraine long-range weapons “with no restrictions” and to let Ukraine join NATO.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosaw Sikorski told the Wall Street Journal he had pressed his American and British colleagues, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, to let Ukraine use the long-range weapons as it wanted, dismissing the idea Putin would escalate in response.

“Are you telling me that Putin is not using – is not throwing – everything he has at Ukraine?” said Mr Sikorski.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sided with Mr Biden’s reluctance to allow free rein on the use of long-range missiles. “Germany will not support lifting restrictions,” he said, shortly before sitting down with Mr Zelensky on Tuesday, “This would not be compatible with my personal conviction,” he added.

In his speech at the UN on Wednesday, Mr Zelensky warned about impending threats by Russia against his country’s energy infrastructure and nuclear plants, but he didn’t speak to any details of the peace plan or make requests related to weapons.

The Wall Street Journal