US, South Korea pledge cooperation on potential use of nuclear arms

Seoul agrees not to develop its own arsenal while gaining more of a say in planning response to North Korea.

Joe and Jill Biden with Yoon Suk-yeol and his wife Kim Keon-hee at the White House on Wednesday. Picture: AFP

The US has agreed to give Seoul a greater voice in consultations on a potential American nuclear response to a North Korean attack in return for swearing off developing its own nuclear weapons, President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol said on Wednesday following a summit at the White House.

The accord, dubbed the Washington Declaration, grants South Korea’s leadership a long-sought place at the table on the use of American nuclear forces to defend the country, though the US would still retain control over targeting and the execution of nuclear operations. Seoul, in return, would restate its commitment not to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

As a demonstration of America’s willingness to use its nuclear deterrent to protect South Korea, the declaration notes that a US nuclear ballistic missile submarine will make a high-profile visit to the country. That would be the first time a US strategic submarine has made a port call in South Korea since 1981 when the USS Robert E. Lee made a similar visit.

“The bottom line here is there’s even closer co-operation, closer consultation,” Mr Biden said in a joint press conference with his South Korean counterpart.

“We’re not going to be stationing nuclear weapons on the peninsula, but we will have visits to ports, visits of nuclear submarines and things like that.”

The new accord comes against a background of anxiety in South Korea over the US commitment to what foreign policy experts call extended deterrence – Washington’s willingness to use nuclear weapons, if necessary, to defend South Korea despite the risk that North Korea could retaliate against US territory.

South Korea’s concerns have been aggravated by significant advances in North Korea’s missile and nuclear arsenal, and the widespread view that diplomacy to denuclearise North Korea appears to be at an end. Another factor has been the volatility of US politics, which has prompted fears in Seoul that a future president would be less willing to defend South Korea against a North Korean military that has intercontinental-range missiles and a growing stockpile of nuclear arms.

In January, Mr Yoon stirred concern in Washington by saying his country could develop its own nuclear weapons or ask the US to redeploy on the Korean Peninsula if the threat from North Korea grows. The US deployed tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea in 1958, but removed them following the end of the Cold War in 1991. The Biden administration isn’t planning to redeploy nuclear weapons on the peninsula.

Dissuading South Korea from producing nuclear arms has long been a bedrock principle for the US, which fears that such a move could encourage the proliferation of nuclear weapons in Japan and in other parts of the world, including the Middle East.

South Korea had a nuclear weapons development program decades ago but abandoned it under American pressure. In 1975, the country joined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, under which nations without nuclear weapons agree never to develop or acquire them.

The Biden administration has said that its long-term goal is to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in US strategy.

Yet the new accord touts the importance of showcasing American nuclear forces to better deter a North Korean attack, reassure the South Korean public and, as a result, dissuade Seoul from reconsidering the development of its own nuclear weapons.

“Sustainable peace on the Korean Peninsula does not happen automatically, ” Mr Yoon said on Wednesday, adding that deterring Pyongyang depended on “the superiority of overwhelming forces and not a false peace based on the goodwill of the other side”.

The new agreement will commit the US to “make every effort to consult” with South Korea on the potential use of nuclear weapons. That will involve maintaining what the declaration calls a “robust communications infrastructure” to facilitate top-level consultations during a nuclear crisis.

The accord will establish a new Nuclear Consultative Group in which senior officials from the two countries would regularly meet to discuss how to reinforce deterrence and the cases in which nuclear weapons might be used. Those deliberations are expected to lead to new ways in which the two sides’ forces train together in scenarios that could include a South Korean conventional military role in supporting US nuclear operations in a conflict.

US officials say the two countries could hold expanded exercises in which South Korean fighters escort US warplanes capable of carrying nuclear weapons. NATO has had a similar program, in which fighters from non-nuclear countries escort warplanes that are designed to carry out nuclear strikes.

The Nuclear Consultative Group wouldn’t review specific targets but would focus on theNorth Korean nuclear threat and how the US and South Korea might respond in a variety of situations.

“It will be the place to talk about what is the exact nature of the nuclear threat from North Korea and how is it changing,” National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said. “It is a level up from any kind of target planning or specific operational planning. It is at the level of strategic scenario planning, threats, capabilities, responses.”

The declaration says the two sides plan to carry out a “table-top exercise” or simulation that would involve South Korean forces and the US Strategic Command, which oversees the US nuclear arsenal.

Though the declaration calls for steps to spotlight the deployment in and around the Korean peninsula of US bombers and other strategic systems that are capable of carrying nuclear weapon, it doesn’t provide for their continuous presence.

Robert Einhorn, a former senior State Department official who is now at the Brookings Institution think tank, said the agreement was an important step to strengthen deterrence and US and South Korean ties.

“The US and Republic of Korea have had a close, intimate relationship in discussions about conventional deterrence and defence,” he said. “But nuclear deterrence has essentially been off-limits to South Koreans. When South Koreans expressed an interest, they were basically told, ‘Don’t worry, we’ve got this.’ Now this stovepipe is being broken down.”

Other former officials said the declaration reassures South Korea but might be insufficient over the long run, given North Korea’s continued military buildup.

“It is a step in the right direction,” said Joel Wit, a former State Department official who is at the Stimson Centre think tank. “But many South Korean government and military officials are not going to be satisfied until they have the finger on the button.”

The Wall Street Journal