US Election 2020: Senate control hinges on five uncalled election results with Republicans holding edge
The Republicans hold the edge in the Senate race, but the Democrats’ last stand could come in January in a Georgia run-off.
Senate Republicans, facing a Democratic offensive, won enough of their Tuesday re-elections to diminish any chance that Democrats could pick up enough seats to take control of the Senate.
Their political prospects brightened on Wednesday when GOP Sen. Susan Collins of Maine defeated Democrat Sara Gideon in her toughest re-election race. Her victory and that of Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa minimised the party’s losses elsewhere and eased the way for a Republican majority to hold the chamber for two more years.
With Democrats retaining control of the House, albeit with a slightly smaller majority, the US will likely remain a divided government, an outcome that would serve as a check on the next president and attempts at sweeping legislative initiatives.
“People are disappointed,” said Rep. Debbie Dingell (D., Mich.). Democrats took solace in the high turnout among women, she added, but “we still have a challenge connecting with a lot of working men and women.”
That disappointment extended to the party’s performance in House races. While votes in some contests were still being counted, it was clear on Wednesday that Republicans had defied predictions of more losses to hold off well-funded Democratic challengers and oust some vulnerable first-term Democratic lawmakers.
Republicans defeated at least six Democratic freshmen, as well as a longtime Democratic lawmaker in a conservative district. Although Democrats were leading in a few seats that hadn’t yet been determined, they looked likely to lose some of their current 232-197 majority.
Senate Democrats did have cause to celebrate after the elections, and they will still have a chance to fight for at least one more Senate seat. Still, after raising an extraordinary amount of money and bombarding the airwaves with attack ads, their expectations were higher. In reality, their battle was steep as they were seeking to take away seats in Republican-dominated states in a presidential year and at a time when voters rarely split their tickets.
Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage in the Senate. Democrats need to flip four seats to take the majority if President Trump is re-elected, or three if Democratic nominee Joe Biden wins the presidency and his vice president casts tiebreaking votes.
On Tuesday, former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper unseated incumbent GOP Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado, while Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, toppled Republican Senator Martha McSally in Arizona, according to the Associated Press.
Those provided a net gain of one seat, and five closely watched Senate races have yet to be called.
In Alaska, Republican Dan Sullivan is ahead and expected to win, although the state’s schedule for counting absentee ballots could delay the result. Democrats are fighting to hold a seat in Michigan, and three GOP-held seats, one in North Carolina and another in Georgia, remain uncalled.
A second Senate seat in Georgia was called without a winner. Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler fell well short of the 50 per cent-plus-one threshold needed to hold her seat in Georgia and is now headed into a January 5 run-off election against Democrat Raphael Warnock, according to the AP projections.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) struck an optimistic note, saying that he had a chance at maintaining his status as majority leader.
“We are in a pretty good position in North Carolina and Maine,” Mr McConnell said. “If we win in North Carolina and Maine, I’m still the offensive co-ordinator, so we may know by the end of the day.” He said other races still have to play out, particularly in Georgia and Michigan.
Democrats cautioned against reaching premature conclusions.
“While we live in an instant-gratification society, that’s not how democracy works. Democracy often takes time to make sure that you have an accurate count,” said Senator Chris Murphy (D., Conn.) “It’s important for us also to count the votes for congressional races,” he said, noting the possibility for runoffs in Georgia that would require a new round of voting.
In North Carolina, Republican Senator Thom Tillis is ahead of Democrat Cal Cunningham with all precincts reporting. But the deadline for accepting mail-in ballots is November 12, making the final tally uncertain. About 117,000 voters who requested an absentee ballot haven’t voted, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, though that number doesn’t yet account for voters who cast their ballot on Tuesday.
In Georgia, votes are still being counted in areas including the Atlanta suburbs which have leaned Democratic in recent elections.
Republican Senator David Perdue on Wednesday was only narrowly above the 50 per cent threshold to avoid a run-off of his own against Democrat Jon Ossoff, making it possible that both Georgia Senate seats would remain unsettled until runoffs in early January.
The contentious races in Georgia underscore how a revived Democratic Party in recent years has been challenging the GOP, which has dominated Georgia state politics since the early 2000s. Today, Republican Brian Kemp is governor, Republicans hold every statewide office and the party controls both chambers of the legislature. But the state’s population has been growing and shifting with an influx of younger people and minorities, many coming from the North.
In 2018, the US Census Bureau estimated Georgia’s population grew to 10.5 million from 9.7 million in 2010. During the same period, the percentage of Black people in the state rose to 32.2 per cent of the total population, from 30.5 per cent. The Hispanic and Asian populations also increased.
With those demographic changes, elections have gotten tighter in the state. In 2016, Mr Trump won Georgia by 5 percentage points, but Democrat Hillary Clinton carried suburban Atlanta counties that were longtime Republican strongholds. In 2018, Stacey Abrams received nearly 49 per cent of the vote compared with just over 50 per cent for Mr Kemp — the strongest showing by a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Georgia since 1998.
As of Wednesday morning, Mr Trump led Mr Biden in Georgia by about tens of thousands of votes, with outstanding votes in the blue-leaning counties in and around Atlanta.
In Maine, Ms Collins’ victory arrived by way of a phone call Wednesday afternoon from Ms Gideon, who conceded the contest after the GOP senator moved ahead by almost 9 percentage points, according to AP projections based on 96 per cents of precincts reporting. The AP then called the race for Ms Collins.
“We came up short,” Ms Gideon said. “I congratulated her on winning this election, and I told her that I will always be available to help serve the people of Maine.”
Ms Collins had campaigned on her ability to deliver for the state, casting herself as a pragmatist and independent in her own mould. Her brand had enabled her to distance herself from Mr Trump, who was losing the state to Mr Biden by about 9 percentage points, although Mr Trump won the electoral-college vote from Maine’s second congressional district.
“Thank you, thank you! I will serve you with all my heart,” Ms Collins said in her victory remarks.
—Madeleine Ngo contributed to this article.
The Wall Street Journal
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