Ukraine turns tables with ceasefire proposal but Putin has little incentive to sign

After Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire proposal, Donald Trump said ‘it’s up to Russia now’. But does Russia feel much pressure at present to accept?

Everything Russia has said so far – and battlefield realities – suggest the Kremlin feels little pressure at present to accept a ceasefire.

Ukraine has managed to flip the diplomatic script on Russia. Whether it proves enough to end the fighting is another matter.

In the wake of a combative Oval Office meeting, the Trump administration questioned whether Kyiv was ready to talk peace.

On Wednesday, after Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire proposal following talks with Washington the day before, President Donald Trump said, “It’s up to Russia now.”

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to the media during a press conference in Kyiv.

He added: “Hopefully we can get a ceasefire from Russia. And if we do, I think that would be 80 per cent of the way to getting this horrible bloodbath finished.”

The president also predicted the war wouldn’t resume after both sides agreed to a ceasefire, and said the US could hit Russia with “devastating” financial penalties if it didn’t agree to a 30-day truce with Ukraine.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz speak with the media following meetings with a Ukrainian delegation in Jeddah on Tuesday. Picture: pool/AFP

Washington planned to contact the Kremlin on Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, and would be reaching out through several channels to gauge Russian officials’ response to the plan and the peace talks that would follow if a ceasefire materialised.

“If Russia says ‘yes’, that’s very good news, and we’ll begin that process and do everything we can to move that process forward,” said Mr Rubio.

“If they say ‘no’, it’ll tell us a lot about what their goals are and, and, and what their mindset is.”

Everything Russia has said so far – and battlefield realities – suggest the Kremlin feels little pressure at present to accept.

The US asked the Russians whether they were interested in ending the war during high-level meetings in Riyadh last month, the secretary of state said.

The Russians indicated interest at the time, under the right circumstances – but the Russian officials didn’t say then what those circumstances were, according to Mr Rubio. The Kremlin didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on the encounter.

Council workers in a park in central Kyiv this week. Picture: AFP

Russian forces are making steady gains on the front line, chewing through Ukrainian land that they will most likely keep in any peace deal. They are now rapidly loosening Ukraine’s grip on its toehold in Kursk, the slice of Russian territory it took in August last year and that Ukrainian officials had hoped would give them extra leverage in any talks.

“Today, everything depends on whether Russia wants a ceasefire or whether they want to keep killing people,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a news conference on Wednesday.

Russia’s Defence Ministry said Wednesday it had recaptured five more villages in the shrinking pocket of territory held by Ukraine and the state news agency posted a video of the Russian flag being raised on the outskirts of the city of Sudzha.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s air force said Russia fired three ballistic missiles and 133 drones across the country overnight.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned Wednesday against “getting ahead of things” in expecting a Russian reaction to the Ukrainian offer. He said Moscow would first discuss the details with the US side.

President Trump has said he planned to talk this week about a ceasefire with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Hopefully he’ll also agree,” he said.

The ceasefire plan, put to the Ukrainians by the US on Tuesday, “was not prearranged” with Moscow, Mr Rubio said. “So they’re probably processing the news the same as the rest of the world,” he added during a refuelling stop in Shannon, Ireland, while on the way to a meeting of Group of Seven foreign ministers in Canada.

The US, Mr Rubio added, doesn’t want to be “abrasive” by threatening economic sanctions or stepped up pressure on Russia while the Kremlin is considering the ceasefire proposition.

Nyet? Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a meeting on Tuesday. Kremlin Pool photo via AP

The US resumed intelligence sharing and military support to Kyiv following the eight-hour talks in Saudi Arabia, ending a more than weeklong pause triggered by the Oval Office encounter between Mr Trump and Mr Zelensky.

“Ukraine demonstrated that it’s fighting for itself, that it doesn’t want war and supports the US in that the end of the war should be as quick as possible,” Mr Zelensky said Wednesday.

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tykhiy said Kyiv had “completely seized the strategic diplomatic initiative and changed the course of the game.”

Mr Zelensky said that the talks helped de-escalate the tense relationship between the US and Ukraine.

“Russia will do everything to create conflict between Ukraine and America,” Mr Zelensky added.

A woman walks near a damaged building in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region, this week. Picture: Tetiana Dzhafarova / AFP

Russia’s public statements indicate that the Kremlin isn’t minded to accept a cessation of hostilities. It has repeatedly said that an interim ceasefire isn’t an option, and voiced scepticism about any peace talks, insisting that a lasting agreement would take time.

“We are approaching this with a lot of caution,” Andrey Kelin, Russia’s ambassador to the UK, said in an interview in London before the talks.

Kelin said Moscow’s scepticism was driven in part by its experience of previous peace talks when Kyiv and Moscow drew up a draft treaty in April 2022, and Russia, he said, withdrew forces from the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions as a gesture of goodwill ahead of a possible ceasefire agreement.

Ukraine disputes that account, saying the military pressure its forces placed on strained Russian supply lines in the area forced Moscow’s troops to regroup to the east and end their assault on the capital.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaks with the governor of Arkhangelsk region Alexander Tsybulsky during their meeting at the Kremlin. Picture: Kremlin pool photo via AP

Putin has said on numerous occasions since then that he is ready to talk peace, but he expects a wide-reaching deal that would keep much of the territory in Russian hands, reverse policies that have sidelined Russian cultural influence in Ukraine, and preclude the country’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

Putin’s hard line on Ukraine reflects the fact that Russia is far less dependent on Washington’s backing than Ukraine, which receives vital military support from the US.

It also reflects three years of intransigence. Putin dug in despite repeated military setbacks and significant pressure on the Russian economy from Western sanctions. The Russian president now sees that perseverance as paying off, viewing the world as shifting in his direction.

Vladimir Putin visits a command point for the troops involved in the counteroffensive in the Kursk region. Picture: KREMLIN.RU / AFP

Battlefield realities are also making Russia less likely to compromise. Helped by troops from North Korea, Russia has in recent days seized several villages in the Kursk region and used overwhelming drone power to largely cut supply routes to Ukraine’s key logistical hub in Sudzha, according to soldiers in the area and analysts.

The Russian advance threatens a Ukrainian position that Kyiv has considered an important bargaining chip in any talks.

“We will consider the American proposal for a ceasefire,” said Kelin, the ambassador. But he added, “We will only stop military operations when we have a full, comprehensive agreement.”

A serviceman of the Alkatraz special rifle battalion of the 93rd Motorized Brigade takes part in a military drill in an undisclosed location in the Donetsk region in February. Picture: Genya Savilov / AFP

The reaction among Russian soldiers and pro-Kremlin military bloggers to Ukraine’s ceasefire proposal was more acerbic, with many arguing that any pause in fighting would only benefit Kyiv.

“As the Kursk front collapses, Ukraine is going on a monthlong holiday, during which Washington resumes the supply of arms and intelligence,” wrote war correspondent Sasha Kots. “Why would we want a ceasefire when our troops are already fighting on the outskirts of Sudzha?”

The details of potential monitoring missions are still to be discussed, Mr Zelensky said. While tracking breaks in the ceasefire on the land and sea would be straightforward, he said, doing the same along the 1300km front line would be more complicated. The 30-day ceasefire would give time to create a more concrete plan, he added.

“People have been fighting for themselves in Ukraine for a long time. Fighting the war for a long time,” Mr Zelensky said. “They deserve to have – not to say a light at the end of the tunnel – but light, real light.”

The Wall Street Journal