UK, Irish leaders locked in a Brexit game of chicken

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Irish Prime Minister Leo ­Varadkar share the same position: no compromise.

Boris Johnson during a visit to a poultry farm in Wales. Picture: AFP

It took nearly a week for new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Irish Prime Minister Leo ­Varadkar to talk on the phone. When they finally did, on Tuesday, it was to underscore a position they shared on Brexit: no compromise.

With the two firm in their views — Mr Varadkar demanding that Britain respect the divorce deal it reached with the EU last year and Mr Johnson emphatic about renegotiating and pulling out of the bloc on October 31 — a compromise deal is looking like a bigger challenge.

Relations between Ireland and Britain haven’t been this bad for decades, politicians and analysts say. The two countries joined the EU at the same time in 1973 and joint membership of the bloc helped bring an end to old antagonisms. Those are now being fanned by Brexit.

“One of the consequences of Brexit that has not been much discussed is the growth of Irish ­nationalism,” said Charles Grant, founder of the Centre for Euro­pean Reform think tank.

Brexit has thrown Ireland into the middle of the fraught face-off between Britain and the EU. Mr Johnson says he wants a new separation agreement with the EU or he will wrench Britain out of the bloc in three months. The EU says negotiations are closed.

At the heart of the tug of war is whether Mr Varadkar will ­endorse the removal of a clause in the Brexit divorce deal aimed at avoiding a physical border on the island of Ireland.

The Irish “backstop” would see Britain remain in a Customs union with the EU to maintain the seamless flow of goods across a border between Northern Ireland, which is in the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, which is in the EU, until a trade deal is in place.

Mr Johnson says the clause is unacceptable because Britain couldn’t then quit the Customs union on its own. Mr Varadkar told Mr Johnson on Tuesday the clause must be in place to ensure peace and stability across Ireland.

Mr Johnson and others in his government have started referring to the backstop as undemocratic. Irish politicians argue it was former British prime minister Theresa May who requested the current version of the clause in the first place.

“A lot of the rhetoric is about Ireland forcing the UK to do something,” said Lisa Chambers, Brexit spokeswoman for Fianna Fail, the largest opposition party in Ireland, which supports Mr Varadkar’s position on Brexit.

Ms Chambers expected Ireland to hold firm. “Just because the (British) Prime Minister is banging the table, that is not going to change things,” she said.

Mr Johnson told Mr Varadkar that he would pursue talks with the EU “in the spirit of friendship”.

The more Britain ramps up rhetoric around Ireland, the harder it is for the Irish Prime Minister. If Mr Varadkar backs down and says he would accept no backstop, he would risk appearing weak to his Irish voter base, Mr Grant said. “He would be toast, politically.”

If Mr Varadkar doesn’t concede, a no-deal Brexit could send economic shockwaves through the Irish economy and endanger the accord that put an end to ­decades of sectarian violence in the region.

In the three years since the Brexit vote, Ireland’s government has enjoyed support from voters and rival political parties for its firm stand on the backstop. There are now signs of strain in that consensus. Opposition MP Timmy Dooley tweeted last week that Mr Varadkar’s “lack of experience and arrogance” had heightened the risk of a no-deal Brexit.

Fine Gael, the ruling party, quickly accused Mr Dooley of ­undermining Ireland’s position.

“Deputy Dooley’s comments have already been seized upon by the arch-Brexiteers and the hard Tory Right in England who are ­delighted to see a weakness in what has been a united Irish front until now,” said Neale Richmond, Fine Gael’s spokesman for European affairs.

The EU Commission has backed Mr Varadkar’s position. Once Britain is out of the EU, Northern Ireland will become a gateway into Europe’s single market — and the EU says it will need to enforce the border to ensure food standards and Customs checks are in place.

Mr Johnson told Mr Varadkar on Tuesday that the British government wouldn’t put physical checks on the Irish border for fear of risking the 1998 peace accord. It is unclear what the EU would do in that circumstance.

Other options that have been discussed in the past include leaving Northern Ireland in the EU Customs union, effectively putting a border in the Irish Sea. The British government previously ­rejected this, saying it would damage Britain’s unity.

“Our relationship with the UK is important,” said Donal de Buitleir, the director of the Institute of International and European ­Affairs in Dublin. “This is hopefully a temporary little difficulty.”

The Wall Street Journal