Trump’s Ukraine peace strategy put to test after Putin baulks at ceasefire

If Moscow walks away, Donald Trump will have to decide whether to impose new sanctions

US President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office on Thursday. Picture: AFP

President Trump finds himself a “yes” away from brokering a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. But it is Russian President Vladimir Putin who has to say it, and he is leaning in the other direction.

That has put Trump, the self-professed master deal-maker, in a bind of his own making. After promising Putin wants peace and pressuring Kyiv to back the 30-day fighting pause, Trump will face a decision on imposing new sanctions on Moscow, as he has vowed to do if the Kremlin baulks at the US-brokered plan.

But punishing Moscow could add another roadblock on the already arduous path to a deal, one that would put at risk his larger goal of improving relations with Russia.

Asked Thursday about leverage he might have over Putin, Trump insisted at the White House, “I don’t want to talk about that.” But he said of the three-year-old war, “We have to get it over with fast.”

Whether Trump achieves the goal depends on how he and his advisers navigate talks with Moscow in the coming days. Instead of rejecting the ceasefire outright, Russian officials are signalling they may demand concessions before talks on ending the war ever begin, putting even more pressure on Trump.

The larger question is whether Putin is as committed to peace as Trump has insisted he is — or whether the concessions required to get him on board will cost Trump the support of Ukraine and European governments fearful that Russia will resume fighting without a strong deal.

Trump said Thursday that negotiators have already been discussing the outlines of an agreement, including territorial concessions that will be required and narrower issues, such as control of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant now in Russian hands.

National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes insists Trump “is focused on one objective: bringing this conflict to a peaceful resolution” by first getting Russia to agree to the 30-day ceasefire.

But many analysts remain sceptical that Putin will ultimately sign off on this or any other proposal. “There is no deal to be had with the Russians and they would reject any deal that the US negotiates with Ukraine,” said Alina Polyakova, president and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington.

Ukrainian troops at a military training ground in the Zaporizhzhia region on Thursday. Picture: Ukrainian Armed Forces / AFP

Trump said ending the war would be easy, claiming on the campaign trail that it would take him only 24 hours. After failing to meet that deadline once back in office, Trump has turned to wooing Russia and pressuring Ukraine to catalyse a deal.

The president has said Kyiv wouldn’t be offered NATO membership and has yet to endorse a European plan that calls for sending British and French troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers. Moscow opposes both ideas.

After a disastrous White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump paused military and intelligence support to his forces until Kyiv backed the US ceasefire plan this week.

That has left the war’s immediate future in Putin’s hands.

“Who will give orders to stop fighting? What is the price of those orders? Who will determine where and by whom they were violated?” the Russian president said Thursday, enumerating issues that he says need clarification before a ceasefire.

He might prefer to fill in the blanks during an expected future conversation with Trump.

Senate Republicans, including some of Trump’s staunchest allies, are calling on him to retaliate against Russia if Moscow walks away from the negotiations. “Putin deserves a lot more pressure than Ukraine does,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R., S.D.), adding there would “absolutely” be congressional support for more large-scale sanctions on Moscow.

In a joint statement Thursday, Sen. Roger Wicker (R., Miss.) and Rep. Mike Rogers (R., Ala.), who each chair their respective chamber’s armed services committee, implored Trump to “make clear that the costs of continuing the bloodshed will far exceed anything Putin has experienced to date.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.), arguably Trump’s closest Senate confidant, posted Wednesday to X: “I am extremely sceptical that Russia will accept the cease fire and I am very doubtful they want to end this war.” The lawmaker revealed he would introduce “bone-breaking sanctions and tariffs” on the Kremlin by the week’s end.

US Sen. Lindsey Graham is arguably Trump’s closest Senate confidant. Picture: Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP

Trump has shown few signs that he feels constrained by scepticism of the Ukraine negotiations by allies, either in Congress or overseas. He is operating on his own instincts and for his own reasons, unconcerned about almost any views but his own, analysts said.

“The last threads of constraint on presidential power in foreign policy have snapped,” said Elizabeth Saunders, an international-relations professor at Columbia University.

How Republicans react to Trump’s handling of Putin in this precarious moment, especially if he baulks at imposing sanctions on Moscow, could be the next big test of the actual foreign-policy constraints Trump faces.

“It would be a critical moment for Republican leadership in the Senate for them to demonstrate that when they say we should back Ukraine and we should achieve a just and lasting peace for Ukraine, that they mean it,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D., Del.).

The Wall Street Journal