Trump got lucky in his campaign, then Harris did. Will her luck run out too?
For much of the presidential campaign, former President Donald Trump looked like the lucky candidate as he dodged court cases and the bullets of an assassin. But ever since Vice President Kamala Harris became her party’s nominee, she appears to be the fortunate one.
After President Biden abruptly ended his re-election bid six weeks ago, Harris swiftly moved to the top of the ticket without having to endure a primary and the bruising competition that accompanies it. Democrats, relieved after shedding a nominee who trailed in the polls, funnelled hundreds of millions of dollars to Harris and rallied behind her at their convention in Chicago. So far Trump has largely been unable to land a punch on her.
The flurry of campaigning that begins after Labour Day presents a major test for Harris. She’ll participate in her first presidential debate on September 10, where she will face scrutiny over her policy plans as well as her shifts on issues such as climate change and immigration. A softening job market could amplify voters’ economic concerns and, as the incumbent vice president, present Harris with a greater domestic liability than Trump.
Further tumult in the Middle East poses another challenge. Trump and Republicans seized on the news that American-Israeli hostage Hersh Goldberg-Polin was among six bodies found in Gaza that the Israeli military said were killed by Hamas, blaming Biden and Harris. The president and vice president met Monday with the US hostage-deal negotiation team, condemning the murders and discussing next steps to release remaining hostages.
A recent Wall Street Journal poll showed Harris had 48 per cent support to Trump’s 47 per cent in a head-to-head test of the two candidates, a lead that was within the poll’s margin of error.
“She’s got luck,” said Democratic strategist Jim Manley. “The question is how long it’s going to last.”
The vice president held rallies with union workers in Michigan and Pennsylvania on Monday, with President Biden joining in Pennsylvania. Trump, who was in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin late last week, has a rally in Wisconsin on Saturday.
“Let’s not pay too much attention to the polls,” Harris said in Michigan on Monday. “We are out here running like we are the underdog in this race because we know what we are fighting for.”
Trump posted on his social-media platform Monday: “Happy Labour Day to all of our American Workers who represent the Shining Example of Hard Work and Ingenuity. Under Comrade Kamala Harris, all Americans are suffering during this Holiday weekend.”
During a recent CNN interview, Harris sought to defend herself over changes on fracking and immigration that Trump’s campaign says show she cannot be trusted. During her campaign for president that started in 2019, Harris said she favoured banning fracking, a stance backed by environmentalists, but she has since disavowed that position. While she previously struck a softer tone on illegal migrant crossings, Harris now says there should be consequences for such crossings.
Trump has struggled to recalibrate his campaign against Harris. His efforts to brand her as uber-liberal haven’t connected. He has spent much of his time making personal, and at times derogatory, attacks on Harris on social media. A visit to Arlington National Cemetery sparked controversy after a clash between Trump’s team and the cemetery staff. And he has openly vacillated on abortion, aware that he could lose female voters over the issue.
“Trump’s been fortunate to have really mediocre opponents. This is the first time he’s faced somebody who has real momentum,” said Republican strategist Alex Conant. He added: “I think he needs to reframe the race in a way that has worked for him in the past — I’m the outsider, she’s the insider.”
The coming debate also presents a test for Trump, who will be pushed on his vision for the country and could be pressed on his derogatory rhetoric and whether he will accept the election results.
Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita said the debate “provides an opportunity to press on issues and what your true position is on the issues.” Harris’s campaign argued that Trump is a veteran of general-election debates and said that she comes into it as an underdog.
Both campaigns pushed back on the idea that luck has played a role in the race.
Harris senior adviser David Plouffe said: “I think you make your own luck.” He also argued that Trump has outperformed polls in the past. “That doesn’t mean it will happen again, but I think a smart campaign just assumes maybe he is a little bit stronger than some of the polls suggest.”
In a memo issued Sunday, Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said that the vice president remains the underdog in the race. The memo also noted Harris has raised over $540 million since taking over and said the campaign had more than 312 offices and 2,000 staffers in the battleground states, as well as $370 million in television advertising time reserved.
The Trump campaign said it has hundreds of full-time staff and 300 Trump/GOP offices in the states, as well as nearly 2,000 paid canvassers. The campaign also said it has active volunteers in programs that include phone-banking and doorknocking.
LaCivita said that the leading issues for voters continue to favour Trump. “If voters are making their decisions on who is better to help them and their families get through or fix the economic crisis, inflation, and put them on a path back to the American dream, and put them back on a path of prosperity, Donald Trump wins every single time,” he said.
At the Republican convention in July, Trump appeared to be the luckiest person in politics. He had successfully vanquished numerous primary opponents to earn his party’s presidential nomination for a third time, despite his past impeachments and continued denial of the 2020 election results. A Supreme Court ruling had jeopardised a federal case alleging Trump illegally attempted to overturn 2020 election results. And he had survived being shot during a rally in Butler, Pa., just two days before the convention began.
But Biden’s exit reset the race in ways that Trump couldn’t have anticipated.
The latest Wall Street Journal poll offered little evidence that Trump’s efforts to tarnish Harris — such as labelling her agenda as “communist” and calling her weak on issues such as immigration and crime — have worked. Voters now view Harris in a more positive light than they view Trump, and while he still leads on issues such as the economy and immigration, she has narrowed those gaps compared with Biden. She is also much stronger on abortion rights, which voters described as their top make-or-break issue.
Trump’s legal woes resurfaced last week when special counsel Jack Smith filed a revised indictment that accuses Trump of trying to undo his 2020 election loss, saying the case remains largely intact even after the Supreme Court’s July ruling that former presidents enjoy sweeping immunity for acts they take while in office.
Another variable that could alter the direction of the race is a so-called October surprise, an unexpected event that up-ends the contest. In 2016, as Trump faced Hillary Clinton, there were a series of October bombshells — the release of a tape in which Trump bragged about grabbing women, the WikiLeaks release of hacked Clinton campaign emails and an announcement from the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation director that he was reopening an investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email server.
The Wall St Journal
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