Trump effect gives Poland’s right wing candidate Karol Nawrocki a win

While Trump-styled conservatism has faltered in other elections such as Australia, it found fertile ground in Poland and helped conservative Karol Nawrocki.

Karol Nawrocki, on stage with his wife Marta and their children following the Polish presidential run-off election. Picture: Getty Images.

When the Law and Justice Party first picked Karol Nawrocki as its presidential candidate six months ago, most Polish voters didn’t know who he was.

The historian-turned-politician sought to burnish his credentials by staking out conservative policies and capitalising on fatigue over the war in Ukraine. But he got what was perhaps his biggest boost from more than 4,000 miles away, when President Trump gave him a nod of approval.

The election saw the largest turnout by Polish voters in a presidential race since the country cast off Communism in 1989. After a nail-biting finish, Nawrocki won by a knife-edge margin, getting support from 50.89% of votes cast.

Trump’s backing might not have been the deciding factor in catapulting Nawrocki to Poland’s presidential palace, but it gave him an edge in a tight race. At a time when Trump-styled conservatism has faltered in other recent elections such as in Canada, Australia and Romania, it found fertile ground in Poland and helped Nawrocki as he was looking to establish a political identity.

Karol Nawrocki with supporters as exit polls were announced. Picture; AFP.

“If you have an election that is that close – and especially with a candidate who is an absolute unknown quantity – American support is an important part of building credibility … as someone who can represent the country internationally,” said Jacques Rupnik, an expert on Central and Eastern Europe and professor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies.

Many voters used the election to voice dissatisfaction with the current ruling coalition, headed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, which has struggled to address rising prices and make good on the campaign promises that got it elected in 2023.

But Nawrocki, who won by less than 400,000 votes, benefited from an effort by the Law and Justice Party to strengthen ties with the U.S. and Trump, which stretches back to the American president’s first term.

For most of Nawrocki’s career, he had been a historian working in Polish state museums and institutes, first in Gdansk, one of the first sites of the Nazi invasion of Poland in 1939, and then in the country’s Institute for National Remembrance, which is dedicated to investigating the crimes of Nazis and Communists against the Polish nation during the 20th century.

Nawrocki had sought to capitalise on his experience as an amateur boxer to cultivate an image as a tough politician. But in a survey conducted shortly after he was tapped by Law and Justice for the race, only 39% of respondents knew who he was.

He staked out positions on the right as he established his political image, calling for the broad criminalisation of abortion, opposing same-sex unions and throwing a copy of the graphic novel “Gender Queer” into a shredder during a campaign event.

When Poland’s most popular right-wing anti-establishment party, Konfederacja, was eliminated in the first round of voting, Nawrocki moved swiftly to sign up to a platform of party objectives that included not sending Polish troops to Ukraine and keeping Kyiv out of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

But his support from Washington gave him a new level of credibility. When the Conservative Political Action Conference, a U.S.-based conservative advocacy group, had its first meeting in Warsaw last week, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem threw in her support, saying Nawrocki needed to be Poland’s next president.

The same day, the House Committee on Foreign Affairs claimed without giving proof that Nawrocki’s opponent, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, could be benefiting from illegal funds and implied that the European Union was staying quiet about it because it benefited its interests. Trzaskowki has denied receiving any illicit financing.

The most important show of support, however, was from Trump himself. Following a meeting between Trump and Nawrocki in the Oval Office, the White House released photographs of the two smiling shoulder to shoulder with a thumbs up to the camera.

“Among everything that came out of Washington, the photo with Trump was the most important for Nawrocki – to make him look credible,” said Milan Nic, a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Many in Poland see Washington as the country’s most important historical ally – from former President Woodrow Wilson advocating for the creation of a Polish state following the end of World War I to former President Ronald Reagan’s support for Poland’s Solidarity movement that freed the country from communism’s stranglehold behind the iron curtain.

During Trump’s first term, President Andrzej Duda, whose term expires this year, went to Washington where he floated the idea of a U.S. permanent presence and a potential Fort Trump, though it never came to be.

The importance of Trump’s influence now comes as Poles worry whether America’s security blanket will continue to extend over Europe. Poland sees its ties with Washington as an existential issue, particularly with continued Russian aggression and faltering peace negotiations in neighbouring Ukraine.

“There is an understanding in Poland’s DNA that the U.S. was there at its most pivotal moments so there’s a different type of respect Poles have for the U.S.,” said Pawel Chudzicki, head of the Washington office of Miller Canfield Paddock and Stone law firm, who also represented the Polish Defense Ministry under the previous Law and Justice government. “It’s not seen as interference but as a reflection of who is in the White House right now.”

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