Trump beatable in early states, despite huge national poll lead

If Donald Trump is the nominee and Republicans and independents keep defecting, he’s sunk and so is his party. Picture: AFP

The RealClearPolitics average of the polls has Donald Trump at 55.9 per cent while the rest of the field and the undecideds total just 44.1 per cent. Yet nominations are decided not by national polls but by state caucuses and primaries, with early states exercising disproportionate influence.

The race so far has been more interesting in these first-to-vote states. Republican voters have seen a lot more of the non-Trump contenders than Trump. While nationally Trump is still far better known than the other options, these early states are getting familiar with the rest of the field. The result? A majority of early-state Republicans aren’t for Trump.

Take Iowa: the August 17 Selzer NBC/Des Moines Register Poll had Trump as the first choice of 42 per cent of Iowa GOP caucus-goers – a sizeable lead but nearly 14 percentage points below his national standing.

An Echelon Insights poll had Trump at 33 per cent, while nationally he stood at 57 per cent. In both polls, a majority of Iowa Republicans don’t consider the former president their favourite.

Admittedly, not every GOP primary voter will get to see contenders as close-up as Iowans do. The state’s long caucus history has also trained Iowa Republicans to take seriously their responsibility of being the first test. A loss or even a narrow victory could upset Trump’s coronation and eventually send the nomination battle into overtime.

In New Hampshire, Trump was at 34 per cent in an August 17 Echelon survey – nearly 22 points lower than his national standing – with the rest of the field and undecideds at 66 per cent. Trump did better in an August 11 Emerson College survey of the Granite State, with 49 per cent support. Still, that’s nearly seven points below his national standing.

Trump’s opponents remain weak, but the gap between his national standing and these early-state numbers has to worry his campaign. It’s hard to say whether the disparity will keep growing, but it could, given Trump’s jam-packed courtroom calendar and his reluctance to spend time visiting all of Iowa’s 99 counties or endure endless New Hampshire town halls.

To diminish that possibility, Trump’s strategists are doing all they can to create a sense of inevitability. Yet that carries risk. If his numbers falter even slightly, it will look a lot worse because expectations were needlessly raised.

Also important is the number of independents and Republicans open to the idea that Trump is a criminal. In an August 16 AP/NORC poll, 45 per cent of independents say he did something illegal with classified documents, 41 per cent say he did something illegal in Georgia regarding the 2020 election, and 33 per cent say he did something illegal related to January 6.

Perhaps more worrying is the number of GOP voters unpersuaded of his innocence. Eighteen per cent of Republicans told AP/NORC that Trump did something illegal with classified documents, while 21 per cent “don’t know enough to say”. Similarly, 16 per cent of Republicans felt he broke the law in Georgia and 27 per cent weren’t sure. And 15 per cent of Republicans felt his role in January 6 was illegal; 16 per cent didn’t know. The uncertain Republicans may also believe Trump’s actions were illegal but feel uncomfortable telling a pollster.

Even if voters genuinely are undecided, the trials are unlikely to improve their opinion of Trump.

The number of sceptical independents and Republicans will probably grow as he spends his days in court rather than campaigning – which should worry any Republican who wants victory in 2024.

Trump can afford to lose hardly any GOP or independent voters. He carried 94 per cent of Republicans and 41 per cent of independents in 2020 but still ran 7,059,526 votes behind Joe Biden. The AP/NORC poll suggests he’ll lose more than 6 per cent of Republicans in 2024 and run much worse with independents.

If he is the nominee and Republicans and independents keep defecting, he’s sunk and so is his party. He may be stuck on that path. But the GOP doesn’t need to be.

The Wall Street Journal

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