The Trump indictment is trouble for both parties

Donald Trump is beamed in during a White House briefing. Picture: Getty Images

The criminal indictment of a former president has pushed the US into unexplored territory. There is no good precedent for how this will play out. But amid the Sturm und Drang of America’s broken politics, some things are becoming clearer.

Many Democrats wisely are refusing to talk about Donald Trump’s indictment. Tuesday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters, “It’s an ongoing case, so we’re just not going to comment”.

Democrats have good reason to maintain this posture. Commenting makes the case look more political. It also diverts attention from Trump’s crazed responses, thereby violating a cardinal political rule: Never interfere with your opponent when he’s self-immolating. And Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s convoluted indictment could well fail to produce a guilty verdict. Better then to have distance from the affair and the district attorney.

Bragg charged Trump under New York law with falsifying business records, normally a misdemeanour. But the two-year statute of limitations has run out, so the only way to prosecute Trump is by turning the charge into a felony. This requires Bragg to allege “an intent to commit another crime”, violating federal election-finance laws. Trump pleaded not guilty to all charges.) Many experts, including on the left, think it will be difficult to prosecute Trump in state court for a supposed federal offence.

As for the politics, there is evidence it is helping Trump. A Reuters/Ipsos poll on March 20 found Trump leading Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 44 per cent to 30 per cent. By this week Trump led 48 per cent to 19 per cent.

Trump’s campaign claims the indictment also produced a financial windfall —$US1.5m ($2.25m) in the first three days after the news broke and more than $US8m in the five days after the grand jury handed up the indictment last Thursday.

It’s a real question, however, if this will last. Can Trump build a successful campaign based on victimhood and the lie that the 2020 election was stolen? Or will Republicans conclude the former president is too toxic? The Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary will be next January or February, so there’s plenty of time for public opinion to bounce around. And what goes up quickly tends to fall quickly.

We’ll know sooner if the indictment donation trend is a bump or a blip. Did Trump backers keep hitting the “donate” button? And online fundraising is expensive: What did that roughly $US10m cost Team Trump? We’ll find out on April 15, when the campaign’s next Federal Election Commission filings are due.

Many Republican leaders have condemned the prosecution as political persecution. But they aren’t happy the controversy is drowning out the rest of the Republican messaging. GOP White House hopefuls reasonably despair that they’ll largely be ignored until voters tire of the drama in New York — if that happens.

There are poll numbers that should worry both parties. For all the indictment kabuki, independents still look more like Republicans than Democrats on major issues. The March 27 Fox News poll which found 63 per cent of Democrats approve of President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy but only 31 per cent of independents and 8 per cent of Republicans do. Similarly, 66 per cent of Democrats approve of Biden’s handling of border security, but only 27 per cent of independents and 9 per cent of Republicans do.

When it comes to Trump, however, independents look more like Democrats. In the April 1 ABC/Ipsos survey, 88 per cent of Democrats agree Trump should have been charged; the rest say he shouldn’t have or don’t know. Forty per cent of independents say he should have been charged, 32 per cent say he shouldn’t have, and 27 per cent don’t know. Among Republicans, 16 per cent think he should have been indicted, 62 per cent say he shouldn’t have and 21 per cent don’t know.

If Trump is the nominee, those numbers could ruin a decent chance to win the White House. He took 48 per cent of independents in 2016 and about 41 per cent in 2020. It spells trouble that a smaller percentage than that now oppose the indictment — and that 16 per cent of Republicans support charging the former president and one in five don’t yet know. He took 94 per cent of GOP voters when he lost in 2020. He needs virtually every Republican and a majority of independents to win the general election — but he could easily become the nominee without them.

This is the first election since 1920, when Eugene Debs was the Socialist candidate, that someone indicted or convicted is running for president. Whether Trump’s indictment helps him win the nomination is an open question. But his 2024 general election chances are now much slimmer. Hush money for porn stars isn’t a winning issue.

Karl Rove helped organise the political action committee American Crossroads and is author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).

The Wall Street Journal