The problematic politics of Trump’s bill: more lower-income Americans are voting GOP

The Republicans have more middle and lower-income voters who are reliant on the safety net programs Donald Trump wants to cut.

To understand why Republicans have struggled to unite behind their domestic policy bill that cuts taxes and Medicaid, look at how much progress the party has made on one of its other primary goals: winning support from working-class Americans.

About 15 years ago, in 2009, Republicans represented 26 of the 100 lowest-income House districts, according to census data. By 2023, they represented 56 – more than half. At the same time, Democrats came to dominate the wealthiest House districts, representing 69 of the 100 where incomes are highest.

In other words, America’s two political parties have traded places economically. Where Americans once referred to upper-income “country club Republicans” and blue-collar “lunchpail Democrats”, they now see a working-class GOP and, in many ways, a professional-class Democratic Party.

That is good news for Republicans, because working-class voters – often defined as those without a four-year college degree – comprise one of the biggest blocs in the electorate. But with that success comes a problem: the GOP now represents more constituents who rely on social safety net programs, such as Medicaid.

The bill that passed the Senate on Tuesday, and now returns to the House, would cut taxes on tips, on overtime and on car loan payments for many Americans, and it would make tax cuts enacted in President Donald Trump’s first term permanent. It also includes a host of tax cuts for businesses. To diminish the effect of the bill on deficits, the party wants to pare back Medicaid, the federal-state health program for low-income and disabled people. Republicans are also looking to cut the program that helps low-income people buy groceries, which was once known as food stamps but now goes by the acronym SNAP.

The US Capitol in Washington. Picture: AP.

The party of middle- and lower-income America is a party that is more reliant on those safety net programs. Consider the 145 House districts – the one-third of all House districts – that are most reliant on Medicaid. The number electing Republicans has more than doubled since 2009.

Republicans proposed even bigger cuts to Medicaid before they came to represent so many low-income House districts. A 2014 plan from then representative Paul Ryan, the party’s leading architect of fiscal policy, would have reduced the budget deficit but also cut Medicaid by about 25 per cent over time and removed 14 million people from health coverage, the Congressional Budget Office calculated.

Why is Trump supporting a measure that could hurt his voters? Republicans have long thought they would take on less political risk in cutting Medicaid than cutting Social Security or Medicare benefits, which most workers feel they have earned through their payroll taxes. That is one reason Trump has long said he doesn’t want to cut Social Security or Medicare.

Republicans say their goal is to help some people move off Medicaid by asking them to meet a new work requirement, which they say can position them for new employment opportunities – and that it is appropriate to ask those who can work to do so.

Critics of the bill say millions of people will lose coverage because they won’t bother to comply with the work requirement or will be discouraged by its bureaucratic hurdles.

Some Republicans are warning that passing these safety net reductions would cause a voter backlash in the 2026 midterm elections and cost the GOP its House majority.

Of the 18 Republican-held House districts the nonpartisan Cook Political Report says are toss-ups or merely lean in the GOP’s direction, five are among the most dependent on Medicaid – that is, they are among the top one-third of House districts ranked by Medicaid reliance.

Cutting Medicaid could also damage the GOP’s prospects in its best pick-up opportunities, in districts where the Democratic hold is tenuous. Of the 22 Democratic-held districts rated as toss-ups or as merely leaning Democratic, 13 are among the most dependent on Medicaid.

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