The Biden-Trump foot-shooting contest

Donald Trump and Joe Biden during the final presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, on October 22, 2020. Picture: AFP

Voters don’t like either party’s presidential frontrunner, and it’s little wonder why. But that leaves a larger question: If there’s a Biden-Trump contest, who will have made himself more odious by November?

Right now, the two men are in a dislikability dead heat: The RealClearPolitics polling average says 55.6 per cent of Americans view President Joe Biden unfavourably to 55.3 per cent for Donald Trump. It’s for reasons that are unlikely to change. An August 14 Associated Press/NORC poll found the most common words voters use to describe Mr Biden are “old/outdated/ageing/elderly” and Mr Trump’s are “corrupt/criminal/crooked”.

A Biden-Trump rematch would likely be decided by who commits fewer unforced errors. So events this past week should unsettle both campaigns — Mr Trump’s because he keeps reopening an old wound, Mr Biden’s because of bloody gashes his friends created.

First Mr Trump. By the time he arrived at Saturday’s Clinton, Iowa, rally, the venue was rocking. “The polls are showing we’re going to win by a lot,” he crowed, urging supporters to “get out and … vote, vote, vote.” He did his greatest hits — attacking the media, listing his accomplishments, decrying Mr Biden’s failed presidency, and knocking the stuffing out of Republican competitors and detractors. The crowd lapped it up.

Then, about 33 minutes in, he shot himself in the foot by yet again bringing up January 6. This time, he went to a new extreme: calling for the pardon of those now serving time for their part in the Capitol riot. “They ought to release the J-6 hostages, they’ve suffered enough,” he said to cheers. “Some people call them prisoners,” the ex-president said. “I call them hostages.”

This was grotesque, especially given that actual hostages are held today by Hamas. And though it got cheers in Clinton, it probably turned off most voters. Seventy-three per cent of respondents told a December. 18 Washington Post/University of Maryland poll that they think “punishments for people who broke into the Capitol” were either “not harsh enough” (38 per cent) or “fair” (35 per cent).

The more Mr Trump hypes his January 6 catch-and-release program, the more he makes that violent day a key consideration for the independent and undecided voters he needs to beat Mr Biden.

Imagine the Democratic ads if Mr Trump is the GOP nominee. There will be scenes of Capitol police being beaten bloody, sprayed with chemical agents and assaulted with their own shields and batons as a rioter screams, “Kill them all!” Americans will be treated to the confessions of the roughly 730 January 6 convicts who pleaded guilty, and the media will spotlight the legal travails of the 330 or so yet to be tried.

Law-enforcement veterans of the riot will shadow Mr Trump on the campaign trail, sharing their experiences and asking why the former president would pardon people who committed violence in his name.

Mr Trump’s only hope is that Mr Biden looks somehow worse. Which, judging from how the president’s friends damaged him this past week, could well happen.

The first round of friendly fire was Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin’s failure to alert the White House that he’d been diagnosed with prostate cancer in early December and then, after complications, put into intensive care this month, making him unable to fulfil his official responsibilities. To make an irresponsible decision look downright negligent, Deputy Secretary Kathleen Hicks was vacationing in Puerto Rico when she assumed some of his operational duties on January 2 and didn’t learn for days that her boss was in the Walter Reed Medical Center ICU.

While the onus for all this lies with Mr Austin, the mess makes the Biden White House look disorganised and the Pentagon badly run during a dangerous period for the world.

Then we learned Barack Obama recently visited the White House to warn his former vice-president of Mr Trump’s political strength and urge Mr Biden to get bigger strategic minds in the re-election headquarters. Mr Obama’s suggestions only raised the hackles of the Biden high command.

It’s baffling who thought it helpful to leak this to the press. Mr Obama looked as if he’d joined the Democratic bed-wetter brigade. Team Biden looked as if it was more interested in settling scores with Obama associates who disrespected Mr Biden during his vice presidency than in defeating Mr Trump.

Mr Trump’s mistake is more serious because it’s more offensive and unlikely to be his last of this kind. On the other hand, Mr Biden and those around him can’t seem to stop making his administration look incompetent. He’ll need a lot of mistakes from the ultimate Republican nominee to win. If Mr Trump is his opponent, Mr Biden will get an assist. The only question is how big.

Karl Rove helped organise the political-action committee American Crossroads and is author of The Triumph of William McKinley (Simon & Schuster, 2015)

The Wall Street Journal