The 12 worst US stocks of 2025 – and the one that could turn around
Wall Street analysts are still believers in at least some of the 12 worst-performing US stocks, and there is one in particular that could turn around next year.
Investors always like to find a diamond in the rough. The year’s biggest losers are a good place to start the search.
The US market has had a pretty good year. Coming into the week, the S&P 500 was up about 16 per cent year to date, putting it on pace for a third consecutive double-digit annual gain, with the possibility of a third consecutive 20 per cent-plus rise.
Yes, the Magnificent Seven stocks, plus Broadcom, have contributed more than half of the total gain, adding some $US4.7 trillion ($7.2 trillion) in market capitalisation. But about 60 per cent of S&P 500 stocks are up year to date, and the average gain for shares is about 10 per cent.
Still, some 200 stocks are down. The worst of those have been: financial technology company Fiserv, ad platform Trade Desk, footwear maker Deckers Outdoor, tech researcher Gartner, exercise-apparel maker Lululemon, Medicare and Medicare health insurance provider Molina Healthcare, real estate investor Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Mexican-food purveyor Chipotle Mexican Grill, market-data provider FactSet Research Systems, broadband provider Charter Communications, chemical maker Dow Inc, and alcoholic-beverage seller Constellation Brands.
Those 12 stocks were down an average of 50 per cent year to date heading into Monday trading. They also traded for about 14 times next year’s estimated earnings, down from an average of 28 times a year ago. (Cyclical chemical maker Dow doesn’t have a price-to-earnings ratio since Wall Street is projecting a 2026 loss.) Losses amid weakening chemical demand are reasons Dow’s stock is lower.
Each company, of course, has its own story. Fiserv, for instance, reported a disastrous third quarter, slashing sales growth guidance to 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent from a prior expectation of about 10 per cent. Shares dropped 44 per cent on October 29 and now trade for about seven times estimated next year’s earnings, down from 22 times a year ago.
Lower P/Es are common among the dozen. That isn’t the case across the board, though, and there could be a couple of diamonds in the rough that have been unfairly punished, or at least have the potential to turn around in 2026.
Three of the stocks have above-average Buy-rating ratios, showing Wall Street analysts are still believers. Analyst ratings aren’t the be-all for investors, but analysts are paid to understand the industries they cover, so they can be a good place to start.
The average Buy-rating ratio for a stock in the S&P 500 is about 55 per cent. Trade Desk’s is 60 per cent, Chipotle’s is 73 per cent, and Constellation Brands’ is 63 per cent, according to FactSet.
Of those three, Constellation is expected to have declining earnings in calendar year 2025 with growth resuming in 2026. That’s the case for Trade Desk, too, with 2026 earnings not expected to eclipse 2024’s level.
That leaves Chipotle Mexican Grill. The burrito chain is expected to grow earnings in 2025 and 2026. Growing earnings and Wall Street support could be a recipe for share gains.
Not everything is perfect, though. (It rarely is with stocks that have been cut in half while the broader market has risen.) Chipotle’s same-store sales growth, a common metric of franchise health for retail and restaurant investors, has slowed and was negative in the first and second quarters of 2025.
Comparable store sales growth improved to 0.3 per cent in the third quarter. Relatively new CEO Scott Boatwright will have to improve that metric in the quarters to come. Mr Boatwright took over for long-time and successful CEO Brian Niccol in 2024 after Mr Niccol left to help turn around Starbucks.
The average analyst price target for Chipotle stock is about $US43 a share, up about 25 per cent from recent levels, and values Chipotle shares at about 30 times estimated 2027 earnings per share.
That’s an above-market multiple, as the S&P 500 trades for about 22 times next year’s estimated earnings. But it isn’t out of line with Chipotle’s trading history.
The company just needs to get growth higher again. It wants to. “We are planning to launch a new creative campaign that spotlights what sets Chipotle apart … You will see new ads that address these aspects of our value proposition in really creative ways, rolling out over the coming quarter and into 2026,” Mr Boatwright said in late October.
“Our culinary team is working hard to meaningfully accelerate our pace of innovation for 2026 to deliver new flavour experiences that are on trend, on brand, and operationally friendly to execute.”
Next year could be better for the restaurant and for its stock, too.
Barron’s
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