Tehran looks to Trump and nuke talks as its escape hatch

With Iran’s air defences shredded, the country faces the prospect of having to submit to tougher nuclear negotiations as the only way out.

Iran’s ­Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Picture: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP.

With Iran’s air defences shredded, allies sidelined and its arsenal of missiles dwindling, the country’s theocratic leaders face the prospect of having to submit to tougher negotiations on their nuclear program as their only way out of a worsening situation.

Iran’s next steps could determine whether the theocratic regime will overcome what is arguably its gravest crisis since its war with Iraq in the 1980s.

Tehran is looking to talks as a possible escape hatch, a way of saving face and preserving its  theocracy, diplomats and analysts say.

Iran cancelled talks with the US on a nuclear deal scheduled for Sunday, but as Israeli attacks intensify, Tehran is signalling it is open to diplomacy.

Donald Trump has said he also wants a deal and the war to end. The US President on Monday said Iran had reached out through intermediaries.

“They’d like to talk, but they should have done that before,” he said at the G7 summit in Canada.

Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf nations, worried about a possible regional war, have been lobbying Mr Trump to pressure the Israelis to halt their campaign.

Iran says it is ready to return to the negotiating table if Israel pauses its attacks. “In the future, if the aggression stops, it is obvious that the ground will be prepared for a return to diplomacy,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told foreign diplomats on Sunday in Tehran.

An Israeli official said Mr Trump had not pressured the Israelis to halt their military campaign. “Trump isn’t telling us to stop,” said Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

While Iran has been weakened by the attacks, it remains unclear how much it is willing to compromise on the circumstances or substance of negotiations.

Senior Iranian officials have publicly expressed mistrust of Mr Trump and rejected his claims that the US wasn’t involved in Israel’s attack on Iran. Yet they have also been careful not to harshly attack the Trump administration as they denounce Israel, wary of taking any measures that could provoke the US into confrontation.

“They have no choice but to keep the door open to a diplomatic solution,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank. “Whether they like it or not, it involves the US and the Trump administration.

“They have to be quite careful, not too inflammatory.”

Israel, too, needs to be cautious about unexpected consequences from its military campaign, such as potentially emboldening hard-liners in Iran who favour nuclear parity with Israel as the only deterrence against future attacks.

That could set off a race to build a nuclear bomb once Iran has the opportunity, if its nuclear facilities survive Israeli attacks.

Since Friday, Israeli warplanes and missiles have damaged the Iranian regime’s infrastructure, striking Iranian nuclear sites, missile launchers, oil and energy facilities, and government buildings. Israel has also assassinated top Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists.

The regime has appeared increasingly vulnerable. The roads out of Tehran have been clogged with people fleeing the city.

On Monday, blasts could be heard live on Iranian state TV as Israel expanded its targets to include buildings in Tehran belonging to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

“Iran isn’t going to be able to match Israel from a military standpoint,” said Michael Singh, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“So it’s going to look for other advantages.”

Four months ago, senior Iranian officials handed Iran’s ­Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a white paper that predicted a frightening future for the country.

The document envisioned a scenario where Israel would conduct airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear program, while Washington would implement “maximum, maximum pressure” in the form of sanctions. Yet it envisioned negotiations with the US on a nuclear deal would also unfold at some point, according to people who have seen the white paper.

Khamenei and his top advisers never expected Israel to launch airstrikes on the scale they have seen in recent days while they were negotiating with the US.

Mr Araghchi told diplomats they had been played by Mr Trump and US Middle East special envoy Steve Witkoff into thinking negotiations would prevent a strike, according to European and Arab officials.

The Iranians have said privately they could be open to resume negotiations as long as Mr Trump publicly says he doesn’t support the Israeli strikes. “A private message is not enough; the US government needs to condemn the attack on nuclear facilities and explicitly withdraw from this conflict to prove its good intentions,” Mr Araghchi told the foreign diplomats on Sunday.

He said Iran would accept only a deal that allowed it to enrich uranium. He accused Israel of striking Iran to prevent nuclear talks going forward.

Some Israeli analysts see Iran’s willingness to return to the negotiating table as a stalling tactic.

The Wall Street Journal