Syria’s post-Assad vacuum has become a shooting range for great powers

The US, Turkey and Israel pursue long-held ambitions after Assad’s ouster weakens Iranian and Russian influence

The unexpectedly swift collapse of the Assad regime has left a vacuum in Syria. The powerful militaries arrayed around its borders are rushing to fill it.

The US dispatched B-52 bombers to carry out airstrikes against more than 75 Islamic State targets in central Syria. Rebels backed by Turkey attacked Kurdish forces and seized territory in the country’s north. And Israel has bombed hundreds of Syrian military targets across the country, methodically demolishing the capabilities of a longtime enemy.

The incursions by various powers ticking off items on long-held wish lists underscore the fragility of the new Syria, where rebel factions that ended more than five decades of Assad family rule are manoeuvring for leverage and control. Their opportunistic pursuit of national interests complicates life for the main rebel group that spearheaded the lightning offensive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, as it works to set up an interim government.

While Mr Assad’s ouster weakened the sway of US foes Russia and Iran in the strategically located country, the jockeying could put NATO ally Turkey on a collision course with US and Israeli interests.

The situation presents a thorny geopolitical challenge for president-elect Donald Trump, even as the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon have become less intense. Mr Trump said shortly before the regime collapsed that the US should stay out of the war in Syria. During his previous term, he pared back the American troop presence there. The dilemma he faces now will be much more complicated.

“The US may have been happy to see Assad leave Syria, but it now faces a crisis,” said Broderick McDonald, an associate fellow at King’s College London specialising in Syrian armed groups.

“Each actor in Syria is scrambling to redraw the map after the collapse of the Assad regime.”

Most immediately, the US faces a major test of its commitment to defend its main ally in Syria, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, in an area where Ankara and Washington in the past have come to the brink of confrontation. Mr Trump’s reduction of US forces during his first term allowed Turkey and its proxies to drive the Kurdish-led group out of a strip of territory along Syria’s northern border.

Mr Assad’s ouster – and Russia’s shrunken presence – has given Turkey an opening to resume that push. Fresh clashes erupted in Northern Syria on Tuesday after Turkish-backed rebels attacked the SDF.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday said he hoped Kurdish “terrorists” in Syria would “be crushed as soon as possible”. Turkey for decades has fought Kurdish separatists at home and views the YPG, the Syrian Kurdish group that leads the SDF, as an extension of the domestic militants it deems terrorists.

The US, meanwhile, has partnered closely with the YPG and SDF in the fight against Islamic State in Syria. That fight remains one of the Biden administration’s top priorities, and the US has seized on Mr Assad’s exit to hammer remnants of Islamic State. US B-52 bombers, F-15E jet fighters and A-10 attack aircraft carried out dozens of airstrikes against Islamic State camps and operatives in central Syria on Sunday. In all, 140 munitions were dropped on more than 75 targets, a senior administration official said.

General Michael Erik Kurilla, head of the US Central Command, later pointedly warned the Syrian rebel groups that deposed Mr Assad against helping Islamic State, also known as ISIS. “All organisations in Syria should know we will hold them accountable if they join with or support ISIS in any way,” General Kurilla said.

Another US concern is the approximately 9000 Islamic State fighters held in detention centres in northeast Syria, and tens of thousands of people confined at the nearby Al-Hol refugee camp. The detainees and refugees are guarded by the SDF, an arrangement likely to remain in place as long as some US forces remain.

SDF fighters have been under pressure since the start of the rebel offensive at the end of November, retreating under fire from Turkish-backed rebels and Turkey’s air force. Turkish-backed fighters captured the northwestern city of Tal Rifaat in early December.

On Tuesday, they took over the last parts of the strategic northern city of Manbij, after nearly a week of fighting in which at least 60 fighters from the SDF were killed, Farhad Shami, a spokesman for the group said.

Mr Assad’s downfall has significantly boosted Ankara’s influence in Syria. Advances by Turkish-backed groups in northern Syria had previously been checked, particularly by Russia, whose potential exit might give Turkey more latitude to press its interests. Among its allies are the leading rebel groups that ousted Mr Assad, including the Syrian National Army and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, giving Turkey sway in the new Damascus.

Turkey’s priority is ensuring that whatever new constitutional framework comes out of Damascus won’t lead to the creation of a Kurdish enclave with the level of autonomy the SDF has been fighting for, said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of the Edam think tank in Istanbul.

The wall street journal