This race is tight. Every day, 538, the Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics report their averages of recent polls nationally and in the seven battleground states. The latter averages provide 21 solid data points on the presidential race, involving dozens of surveys with thousands of respondents.
The aggregators have the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris within 1 percentage point in 14 of 21 swing-state match-ups. Except for the Silver Bulletin’s Georgia average, in which Trump is up by 2.5, the other projections are within 2 points.
Harris plateaued about three weeks ago. Since then, she has declined roughly half a point nationally while Trump rose about the same. She still leads by 1.8 points in 538, 1.6 in the Silver Bulletin, and 0.7 in RCP. This contest could break one way or the other with the smallest pressure on the right button — and there are more than a dozen each side could push.
If Trump loses, it could be because he squandered his lead on who would better handle the economy, inflation and the border and compounded the mistake by not offering a compelling second term agenda. Claiming he’ll make America great again could easily prove insufficient. And Harris has already closed the gap with him on those key issues. If she loses, it could be this wasn’t enough and what she offered to do about them wasn’t sufficiently powerful.
If he loses, it will probably be because she convinced voters that she represented change more than he did. If she loses, it may be because she couldn’t name a single thing she would have done differently from Joe Biden, even after being asked repeatedly.
If Trump loses, it could be because voters find him more personally detestable. Harris leads on character issues such as who has “the mental and physical stamina to carry out the job”, “cares about people like you” and is “honest and trustworthy”. If she loses, it might be because voters decided they now think Trump did a good job in office and that those personality differences don’t matter.
If he loses, it could be because he’s chronically undisciplined, burying his message with such rhetorical diversions as discussing Arnold Palmer’s anatomy or such antics as swaying for 39 minutes to his favourite songs at a town hall. If she loses, it might be because voters decided they could tolerate his eccentricities to get the big changes they want him to bring.
If he loses, it could be because he didn’t support his closing message that she’s “dangerously liberal” with enough hard evidence. If she loses, it might be that her final argument that a second Trump term would be “more unhinged, more unstable and unchecked” doesn’t move voters inured to his behaviour. He also appears to be having more fun campaigning now than she does. That makes him look as if he’s winning.
If he loses, it will almost surely be because he lost too many suburban college-educated women and didn’t flip enough young black and Hispanic males. If she loses, it will likely be because unenthusiastic black, Hispanic and young voters – mainly men –didn’t turn out for the Democrats, while too many working-class whites voted red.
If he loses, it will be because he didn’t do more to minimise GOP defections and reach outside his hard-core MAGA base. If she loses, it will be because she didn’t convince voters she’d govern from the centre.
If he loses, he probably never figured out how to talk about abortion, creating a giant gender gap. If she loses, it will be because she didn’t find a way to cut into his huge lead among men.
If he loses, a big reason could be that his ground game started too late, was underfunded and outsourced too much to super political action groups. If she loses, it will be because his campaign had a superior get-out-the-vote model based on enthusiastic volunteers.
If he loses, it will be because Democrats outraised Republicans for the race – nearly $US1.6bn ($2.4bn) to less than $1bn. If she loses, it will be because he had sufficient funds to mount a winning campaign and a better team than before.
We’ve never seen a presidential race with such spectacular twists and turns. We may not know who won until days after November 5.
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