Leopards for Ukraine are politically symbolic but no gamechanger

Tanks would show European support and help Ukrainian forces manoeuvre more effectively.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz is facing pressure to supply German-built Leopard 2 tanks. Picture: AFP

Berlin’s assent to allow German-made Leopard 2 tanks to be provided to Ukraine — if it comes — would provide an important signal that European political backing for Kyiv remains broad and solid. But the tanks themselves are unlikely to be a game changer on the battlefield, and certainly not in the modest numbers that would be likely to arrive soon.

Instead, the tanks would be a contribution to what Ukraine needs for offence and defence in the next phase of its war with Russia: the ability of soldiers to move around the battlefield in well-protected vehicles accompanied by significant firepower.

The tanks would need to operate effectively with other materiel now being pledged, including armoured personnel carriers and fighting vehicles, self-propelled artillery and air-defence systems, military analysts said.

“There is not a particular weapon system that is a silver bullet — a balance of all systems is needed,” US Army general Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, told reporters Thursday. “A tank comes down to a balance between firepower, mobility and protection,” he said, referring to the attributes as “the holy trinity of capabilities”.

The Leopard 2 is one of the most widely exported Western tanks and European countries and allies in NATO have more than 2000 of varying vintages. But many governments are wary of depleting their own war-fighting abilities by donating them to Ukraine, and other tanks are likely in disrepair. As a result, if Germany gives the go-ahead as required under legal rules around arms sales, only dozens are likely to be in Ukraine soon and no earlier than late spring following weeks of crew training. Ukraine has requested 300 Western-made main battle tanks.

Even the oldest version of the Leopard offers advantages over most of Ukraine’s current Soviet-era tanks, according to analysts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The thermal optics of early versions allow better target identification, including at night. Later models offer sights for the tank commander as well as the gunner. Meanwhile, the Leopard’s 120mm gun uses modern NATO-standard ammunition in relatively plentiful supply.

Ukraine will need to set up the fuel lines, supply trains and repair yards to service the tanks, which at 55 tonnes are heavier than Ukraine’s Soviet-era machines and are prone to breaking down when traversing the vast distances the country is fighting across. Ukraine would also have to operate its Soviet tanks alongside a motley collection of highly complex Western tanks, juggling different calibre ammunition and unique spare parts.

The Leopards could be serviced in neighbouring Poland, whose defence industry has the repair yards and spare parts needed to service those vehicles.

Up to now, Ukraine has operated tanks built or designed in the Soviet era, including those donated by countries in the former Soviet bloc such as Poland that have incorporated more-advanced Western technology. But a year of heavy wear and intense combat have exacted a heavy toll on these tanks. Their cannon barrels in particular have been warped by the heat of frequent fire. To stay on the battlefield, these tanks also need parts and Soviet-calibre ammunition that the West doesn’t produce in any significant quantity.

“This is becoming an issue. That equipment can really no longer be serviced,” said Tomasz Smura, a defence expert at The Casimir Pulaski Foundation, an independent security think tank based in Warsaw.

Over the next two years it is conceivable that Ukraine could field about 160 Western battle tanks, or more if Germany authorised the provision of its older, Leopard 1 tanks, said Franz-Stefan Gady, a defence analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Once the supply lines and logistics are in place to operate a few dozen such tanks, it becomes easier to add dozens more, Mr Gady said. That would also signal that the West, rather than curtailing its support for Ukraine, is making a yearslong commitment to supplying and servicing its tank fleet.

The Wall Street Journal