What does Joe Biden think he’s doing? More importantly, what do the geniuses running his White House communications shop think they’re doing?
According to Politico, the US President will spend the northern autumn on the road on a tour “that will focus largely on the administration’s accomplishments” in “substantive, higher-payoff events”.
“The schedule will be robust and he plans to leave it all on the field,” White House communications director Ben LaBolt promises. Axios reports the President plans to “communicate directly” with Americans “on how the Biden-Harris agenda will pay dividends now and 10, 20 and 30 years into the future.”
This strategy may sound smart to West Wing staffers spit-balling how to occupy Biden’s time but the Harris-Walz campaign team has to be less than thrilled about the possibility of a Biden valedictory tour in the months before the election.
One reason it’s a bad idea is that Biden has become, to put it mildly, a terrible communicator. Remember the debate? He hasn’t magically gotten better since then. His presence on the road might remind Americans why they’re grateful he stepped aside.
It certainly won’t make them feel better about his handling of the economy, inflation, border security or world events.
Another reason Democrats can’t want Biden to be more visible is that Vice-President Kamala Harris has been working overtime to convince voters she’d be a fresh start rather than a continuation of the Biden presidency: 47 per cent of respondents to a September 17 NBC poll said they thought she represented change, compared with 38 per cent who believed Donald Trump did. That nine-percentage-point difference is important in a race in which many voters are unhappy with the country’s current trajectory.
In the same poll, 65 per cent of respondents said they thought “things are off on the wrong track”.
By hitting the road, Biden will be competing for attention with his party’s presidential ticket. Voters don’t have an unlimited attention span. Nor does the media have an infinite amount of space to cover every campaign pronouncement. A senior Biden adviser says “we can help strengthen the argument” for Harris. How does that track with the President’s remarkable unpopularity? Fifty-four percent of the NBC poll respondents disapprove of the job Biden is doing, and 44 per cent disapprove “strongly”. This tour sounds like a cry for attention by an unpopular incumbent.
Biden’s choice of topic repeats the mistake his campaign made last year with its Bidenomics Is Working Tour. All that happy talk annoyed the public, which was already in a foul mood about the economy and prices. In a pre-election farewell tour focused on his accomplishments, Biden won’t be able to control himself. He’ll vastly oversell his record – aggravating voters all over again.
Even as the President pats himself on the back, the country is still grappling with inflation and a softening labour market. The latter caused a seven-point drop in the September Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index – the biggest decline in three years. And the board’s Expectations Index declined five points to just above a level that suggests a recession is coming.
If Biden goes through with this plan, he’ll be making his economic record even more central to the election. Though Harris has worked hard to close the gap, she trails Trump in the NBC poll on who’s better at “dealing with the economy” by 41 to 50 per cent and “dealing with inflation and the cost of living” by 40 to 48 per cent.
Biden’s insistence on being involved could widen that spread a bit.
There is one person who would welcome Biden’s getting out in front of voters: Trump. He knows the President would reinforce the sense that if voters want change, the only way to get it is to send Trump back to the Oval Office. This near the election, the contenders are fighting for inches. Biden may give Trump a couple. At this point, take it where you can get it.
The Wall Street Journal
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