For President Joe Biden, the bad news is piling up. Siena College polls released on Monday by The New York Times and Philadelphia Inquirer show he’s losing to Donald Trump in five of six battleground states.
He trails Trump in Nevada by 12 percentage points (38 per cent to 50 per cent), in Georgia by 10 (39 per cent to 49 per cent), and in Michigan and Arizona by 7 (42 per cent to 49 per cent in both). They’re neck and neck in the remaining two, with Trump ahead by 3 points (44 per cent to 47 per cent) in Pennsylvania and Biden ahead by 2 in Wisconsin (47 per cent to 45 per cent). Both are within the polls’ margins of error.
Even if Trump wins only battlegrounds where his lead is outside the margin, that would be enough with the states he won in 2020 to get him 283 electoral votes and a second term.
Democrats may console themselves that there is plenty of time before Americans vote and one poll isn’t definitive. True, but the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls mirror the Siena results.
Trump leads Biden in the three Sunbelt states: by 6.2 points in Nevada, 5.2 in Arizona, and 4.6 in Georgia.
The RealClearPolitics average does show the three Great Lakes states up for grabs. Trump leads in Wisconsin by 0.6 of a point, in Michigan by 0.8, and in Pennsylvania by 2. If Trump wins the 33 Sunbelt battleground electoral votes, he would be only two shy of the 270 necessary to retake the White House. One of the Great Lakes states would be enough for him to win, while Biden would need all three.
The President has no chance of winning them – or any other battleground – until he confronts his serious problems. He’s behind in the polls not because his predecessor is outperforming his 2020 numbers but because the President is way underperforming his, especially among black, Hispanic and young voters.
Biden doesn’t seem to recognise he’s in big trouble. He told a California fundraiser on Friday that a poll had him carrying Wisconsin by 6 points, another had him up by 4 nationwide, and “all the rest are basically tied”. It could be that he was putting on a brave face, or else he is simply in denial.
Democrat strategists are more clear-eyed. James Carville, who quarterbacked Bill Clinton’s first run for the White House, complains Biden is surrounded by “Ivy League economist academic types” who don’t understand “the world people are living in”. David Axelrod, Barack Obama’s strategist, is concerned Biden is “making a terrible mistake” by not empathising with “the way people are experiencing the economy”.
Hyping his accomplishments hasn’t lifted Biden in the polls. Nor has emphasising Trump’s threat to abortion rights or democracy. Unless there’s a measure on a battleground state’s ballot to drive issue-specific turnout, abortion isn’t likely to be the decisive issue Democrats believed it would be. And 53 per cent of independents told an April 25 NPR/PBS/Marist poll that Biden would “weaken our democracy” in a second term, while only 42 per cent said that of Trump.
Biden can turn things around only if he figures out how to take down Trump with undecided voters – especially those who don’t like either candidate – and soon.
The President is running out of time to convince these voters that Trump is worse than he is. Other incumbents were successfully attacking their challengers long before this point in their re-election race. Biden strategists also have to get it through their heads that swing voters aren’t left-wing Democrats. They don’t want a “transformational” Democrat president but the reassuring, transitional figure they believed they were backing in 2020.
Biden does, however, have a financial advantage that he’s using to build an aggressive get-out-the vote effort. While this won’t give him 8 or 10 more points, it could boost him enough to win some states that are close today.
Trump has yet to deploy a similar program on the GOP side. Financial constraints might keep him and the Republican Party from mobilising a strong ground game that competes with the Democrat effort.
To stay ahead he, too, needs a message correction. Trump should spend much less time talking about his legal troubles and more offering a compelling second-term vision. As he entered the courtroom on Tuesday, he devoted a minute and a half to issues voters care about, such as electric vehicles and tariffs on China, but spent seven minutes complaining about his courtroom treatment. By failing to realise this election is about America’s future and not his present, Trump is providing Biden an opening. We’ll see if the President takes advantage of it.
The Wall Street Journal
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