Joe Biden bets it all on Republican failure

Underpromising and overdelivering have never been Joe Biden’s strength, writes Karl Rove. Picture: AFP

White House aides have been encouraging media coverage that credits President Biden with “a slew of legislative achievements” that give him “significant momentum” and leave him with “a stronger hand to play” in 2023. As he contemplates re-election, his approval rating has “surged” after the midterms.

Not according to the RealClearPolitics average. It has Mr Biden’s approval rising, but only from 42.1 per cent Election Day to a little under 43 per cent today. That’s a budge, not a surge, and 3 points lower than Donald Trump’s approval rating when he lost in 2020.

Admittedly, the Republican Party’s weak midterm showing gave Mr Biden a better election than expected. But victory owing to your opponent’s weak candidates doesn’t mean you’re strong, only lucky. Luck often disappears in politics, especially if you’re making mistakes yourself.

The president’s bragging about the economy is certainly a mistake. His remarks last Thursday were filled with rosy descriptions. Inflation is dropping “month after month, giving families some real breathing room.” Gasoline and food prices are falling, wages are rising, unemployment is low — and because of Mr Biden’s policies, “Americans are starting to feel the benefits in their everyday lives.”

Cue the band for “Happy Days Are Here Again.” Except voters aren’t happy. Year-over-year inflation has slowed modestly, but in December it still was almost five times as high as it was when Mr Biden took office. Wage increases have lagged behind price hikes for almost two years. Mr Biden’s approval on the economy is 38 per cent — down about 2 points from Election Day. On the question of the country’s direction, a mere 29 per cent believe America is headed the right way. This economic reality looks particularly grim next to the president’s claims that we’ve entered an economic land of milk and honey. Voters will think he’s content with a possible recession.

The president would be better off saying sacrifice and hard work will bring better days, with the help of his American Rescue Plan and Inflation Reduction Act. But underpromising and overdelivering have never been Mr Biden’s strength. Just as he has embellished his own life — claiming he was arrested in South Africa, grew up in a Puerto Rican community, graduated in the top half of his law-school class and more — so he exaggerates his policy achievements and the country’s condition. This creates a disconnect between the world he describes and what Americans are experiencing.

Team Biden is compounding this problem with its handling of the discovery of classified documents in an office Mr Biden used at the Penn Biden Center after leaving the vice presidency. They were found on November 2 — six days before the midterms — but this information didn’t become public until January 9, in a news report. The administration also sat on a December 20 discovery of classified materials at the president’s Delaware home until January 12. This raised further suspicions.

Team Biden dismisses all this as a simple oversight caused by the hectic nature of Mr Biden’s final days as vice president. That won’t fly. If chaos is a legitimate excuse, what White House departure was more chaotic than Mr Trump’s?

Besides reducing Mr Trump’s vulnerability on his mishandling of classified documents, Mr Biden’s scandal raises other questions. Who moved classified materials to his office at the Penn Biden Center? How did secret documents get to Mr Biden’s Delaware home? Did the former vice president draw on them for speeches or other writings? Did the Penn Biden Center’s staff, including now-Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Biden adviser Steve Ricchetti, see folders marked classified during the nearly two years Mr Biden had an office there? (Mr Blinken has said he had “no knowledge” of the documents “at the time”.)

There’s also a question that should have been asked in 2020: Did Chinese money fund Mr Biden’s salary and staff at Penn Biden? The University of Pennsylvania, the center’s sponsor, recently dodged, saying “The Penn Biden Center never solicited or received any gifts from any Chinese or other foreign entity” and adding that “one hundred per cent” of the center’s budget comes from “university funds”. As Mr Biden might say, c’mon, man. The university received $US54.6m ($79m) in Chinese money from 2014 to 2019, according to the New York Post, and money is fungible. It doesn’t help appearances that Mr Biden subsequently appointed the university’s president and former trustee board chairman as ambassadors.

Team Biden is hoping all this doesn’t much matter. They’re betting House Republicans will screw up for the next two years, coming across as shrill, angry, negative and nuts; and that the GOP will nominate Mr Trump, the easiest Republican for the president to beat.

Team Biden might win those bets. But they’re risky. Democrats are playing a weak hand and hoping the GOP hand is even weaker.

Mr Rove helped organise the political-action committee American Crossroads and is author of The Triumph of William McKinley (Simon & Schuster, 2015).