Japan ruling party calls for defence boost to 2pc of GDP

China threat cited as reason for Tokyo to build up military and loosen curbs on weapons exports.

The Japanese government of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is looking at nearly doubling its defence spending over the next five years and easing restrictions on arms exports. Picture: AFP

Japan should aim to nearly double its defence spending over the next five years to 2 per cent of gross domestic product and ease restrictions on arms exports, a ruling-party panel has said, citing threats from China.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had mentioned the 2 per cent level in its election platform last year, but the proposal advanced on Thursday was the first time party policymakers gave a specific time frame, highlighting how the emergence of a Russia-China authoritarian axis has spurred US allies to revise their defence thinking.

Japan only recently boosted defence spending beyond 1 per cent of GDP, which was a longstanding informal cap.

Germany, which like Japan has had strong pacifist leanings since defeat in World War II, helped motivate Tokyo’s re-evaluation when Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in late February that he aimed for defence spending to exceed 2 per cent of GDP.

In a policy proposal released on Thursday, the Japanese ruling-party panel cited the 2 per cent target shared by NATO countries, including Germany. It also observed that China’s defence budget last year was about four times as big as Japan’s.

The panel said North Korea’s acceleration of missile and nuclear programs represented a “grave and pressing threat”, and it criticised China’s assertive stance towards Taiwan.

Beijing describes Taiwan, a democratically self-ruled island, as part of China and hasn’t ruled out the use of force to gain control over it.

The Japanese panel said the nation must “comprehensively strengthen its defence forces within five years”. Last year Admiral Philip Davidson, who was commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command at the time, said he feared China might take military action over Taiwan by 2027.

However, the panel’s language fell short of a firm promise to hit the 2 per cent target, describing it as a number to keep in mind as the military build-up proceeds. The panel said its proposals, which still need to be ratified by the party as a whole, were meant to influence the government as it plans for a full revision of national security strategy by December.

Japan’s annual defence spending has risen gradually in recent years and reached 6.1 trillion yen in the fiscal year that ended in March 2022, currently equivalent to $64bn after the yen’s recent fall. That was slightly above 1 per cent of GDP.

The sharp increases needed to hit 2 per cent would likely encounter serious political opposition, including from the LDP’s allies. Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of a junior partner in the ruling coalition, told a radio program on Wednesday that nearly doubling defence spending in a short span “would have trouble gaining public understanding”. Mr Yamaguchi said voters might fear that their pensions would be cut or their taxes raised to pay for a large increase.

The US, Japan’s principal ally, has long pushed Tokyo to increase its defence spending and take a greater role in helping support American military operations in East Asia.

The ruling party proposal also calls for easing Japan’s strict restrictions on arms exports. Japan’s self-imposed rules bar it from sending lethal equipment to countries in the middle of a war. The panel said that should be allowed for countries suffering an invasion that violated international law, which it said characterised the situation in Ukraine. Japan has supplied bulletproof vests and helmets to Ukraine but not guns or tanks.

The paper called for a more aggressive stance if Japan believed it was about to be attacked by an enemy. It said Japan would be justified in carrying out a pre-emptive strike in such circumstances under the principle of self-defence, and could attack not only military facilities such as missile bases but also the enemy’s command-and-control capability.

“There are various ways to attack. We should be able to respond to all such threats,” said former defence minister Itsunori Onodera, the panel’s head.

The Wall Street Journal