Israel’s red lines in Syria are drawing it deeper into conflict

The Syrian Defence Ministry building was heavily damaged by Israeli air strikes in Damascus. Picture; AP.

As Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria was collapsing late last year, Israel took the opportunity to destroy the military capabilities of one of its oldest enemies.

Since then, it has increased its demands on the new regime, insisting on a demilitarised zone south of Damascus and promising to intervene militarily if needed to protect the Druze minority who live on both sides of the border.

That is putting Israel in deepening conflict with Syria’s new leadership, as sectarian violence involving the Druze spiralled this week. Druze on both sides of the Israel-Syria border smashed through Israeli troop positions as they tried to save their families from the unfolding violence.

It is also pitting Israel more directly against Turkey, which supports the new government of interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. On Thursday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of using the Druze as a pretext to destabilise Syria.

“At this point, the biggest problem in our region is Israel’s aggression, ” he said.

On Wednesday, Israel struck Syria’s military headquarters in Damascus, after launching a wave of air strikes targeting government tanks and military convoys in the country’s south. Israel said it was acting in defence of the Druze.

Israel’s response marked a surprising display of force against the new government after the US began pushing the two countries toward a diplomatic detente, and when Israeli officials had in recent weeks talked up the possibility of a deal.

Clashes in Sweida, in southern Syria, began earlier this week over the alleged Bedouin kidnapping of a Druze vegetable seller, and grew into bloody street battles that left at least 150 dead, according to Ayman Shib Al Deen, a Druze lawyer and activist who tracks the number of violent deaths by visiting hospital morgues.

Community leaders, activists and Israel’s military said the violence worsened once Syrian government forces got involved.

Some 150,000 Druze live within Israel, and many have played a key role in the military. Pressure on the government from Israeli Druze leadership to protect their Syrian family was at a fever pitch this week, as many noted that Israeli Druze died in the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, and in the ensuing 21-month long war in Gaza. It is Israel’s turn, they argued, to defend them.

“The Druze have helped the Jews ever since they built the state of Israel,” said Eman Safady, an Israeli Druze journalist and expert on Middle East politics.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday said Syria crossed two red lines that compelled him to act. The first was sending troops into an area that Israel has demanded be turned into a “demilitarised zone,” which it says is needed to keep militants from taking root there. The second was allowing harm to come to the Druze, accusing the government of “massacring” them.

“Both of these red lines were violated by the regime in Damascus,” Netanyahu said. “This was absolutely unacceptable to us.”

Israel’s pledge to defend the group is giving it an opportunity to display military dominance over its weaker neighbour and assert more control over their shared border. Israel struck hundreds of military targets while Assad’s regime was collapsing, leaving the Syrian government nearly defenceless against the onslaught of Israeli assaults.

Still, it is unclear if the Israeli attacks have stopped the sectarian battles. Sharaa’s government said its security forces have retreated. But reports continued of ongoing fighting between local Bedouins, who are Sunni, and the Druze, whose religion is rooted in an ancient offshoot of Shiite Islam.

Sharaa, who was cautious about criticising Israel when he first came to power, was more forceful after the Israeli attacks. In a speech on Thursday, Sharaa said his government succeeded in bringing calm to Sweida “despite Israeli interference.” He accused Israel of “widespread targeting of civilian and government infrastructure to undermine these efforts, greatly complicating the situation and pushing it toward a broad escalation.” Syria under Assad had in recent years become one of Israel’s quietest borders. Israel’s demand that the south remain demilitarised comes from its fears that Islamist forces could reach its border, something that Israel has become keenly sensitive to since the 2023 attack from Gaza.

The fighting this week has shown just how hard it is to keep the border stable, as hundreds of Druze rushed to cross into Syria in an effort to defend loved ones living on the other side. The sudden surge overwhelmed authorities and led Israel to establish routes to let them through.

Security analysts say that while Israel should welcome the new Syrian government’s promises to build an inclusive society, many have doubts about Sharaa’s control over the country’s many armed groups, and whether his aim of national reconstruction takes priority over his Islamist ideology.

“There are two open questions here, and I don’t know the answers,” said Yossi Kuperwasser, director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, a think tank based in Israel. “One is: Is the new regime led by Sharaa capable of solving the problem? The other question is: Are they interested in doing that? Here again, the answer isn’t totally clear.”

The Wall St Journal