Israel’s demilitarisation call tests Syria’s shaky government

The push, aimed at ensuring Israel’s security, risks further fragmenting Syria

Syrians demonstrate in the central Karama Square of the southern city of Suwaydah on February 25, 2025. Picture: AFP

Israel’s demand for the demilitarisation of southern Syria near its border presents a severe challenge for the country’s new rulers, who three months ago brought down the Assad family’s regime.

Israel launched air strikes on Wednesday (AEDT) at targets south of Damascus that it said contained weapons or command centres, just days after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a speech that the area must be completely disarmed and that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group that took over the government, wouldn’t be allowed in.

The demands and air strikes reflected Israel’s new calculus after the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks that left 1200 dead and shook the Middle East. Analysts say the country is seeking to create buffer zones along its borders to prevent similar attacks.

Yet they also put Syria’s new government in a bind, forcing it to choose between confronting a much stronger Israel or surrendering control of some of its territory. Either option risks destabilising a transition in which the government must convince other rebel and sectarian groups that it is able to lead the country.

The attacks came hours after Syria’s government reacted to Netanyahu’s demands by condemning the Israeli army’s seizure of territory and demanding its immediate withdrawal.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said the air force was “vigorously attacking southern Syria as part of the new policy we have defined of demilitarisation”.

“We will not allow southern Syria to become southern Lebanon,” Katz said, voicing a concern that the territory could be used as a staging ground for attacks like those the Lebanese militia Hezbollah has pulled off for decades along Israel’s northern border.

Israel sent its troops into southern Syria shortly after the Assad regime fell and conducted an extensive bombing campaign that wiped out much of the former army and navy’s equipment and air defences, but drew only muted reactions from the new government.

Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has shown no signs of challenging those moves militarily. But a key element of statehood for any government is the ability to protect its borders, and Israel’s demilitarisation demands are highly unlikely to be accepted by Syria’s leadership. They also could make it harder for the new leadership to unify the county.

“Israel’s actions are preventing Damascus from consolidating full control over Syria, especially the south, and it is contributing to instability in an already fragile post-war country,” said Nanar Hawach, a senior analyst for Syria at the International Crisis Group.

The new administration held what it called a national dialogue this week to bring the country’s various factions together. It is due to begin forming a new, more representative government soon.

Analysts said more military assaults by Israel could weaken the Syrian leadership’s authority across the country, as well as open it up to internal splits and rivals who could pose their own threats to Israel.

The assaults and pressure to demilitarise the south could prompt communities in other parts of Syria to demand autonomy. Armed groups and factions thinking of joining the government could decide to take a wait-and-see attitude if they sense the government doesn’t have a handle on the country. “If this government is weakened too much, then it cannot control the more radical elements,” Hawach said.

The Wall Street Journal