Israel expands war in Middle East as it strikes back at Iran

Israel limited its strikes to military facilities rather than energy or nuclear sites, giving Iran an excuse not to respond, now the two countries have attacked each other twice.

Israel struck back at Iran early Saturday, delivering a much-threatened response for this month’s 180-missile attack and further expanding the hostilities that have spiralled out of the war in Gaza.

Israel said it was hitting military targets but didn’t specify them. The attacks were continuing with a second wave of strikes more than an hour after Iranian state media first reported explosions near the capital, Tehran, people familiar with the matter said. It couldn’t immediately be determined what had been hit.

Iran had threatened to retaliate forcibly if its nuclear or oil infrastructure was struck. The U.S. had urged Israel not to hit those targets, and governments around the world had cautioned against further escalation in the midst of concern the violence could spin out of control.

“From what we know now, this is the best-case scenario in terms of keeping this round contained, given Israel seems to have limited its strikes to military targets rather than nuclear or oil infrastructure,” said Dalia Dassa Kaye, a senior political scientist at UCLA and former director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy at Rand.

“This gives Iran an exit ramp if it’s looking for one. But we’re still in a different place, because Israel and Iran are now in a direct and open conflict.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attending a meeting in the command centre of the defence ministry in Tel Aviv during the strike.

The U.S. was informed by Israel hours ahead of the attack and didn’t participate, U.S. officials said. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed Israel’s plans for the strike with President Biden on a call earlier this month, a U.S. official said. After the attack began, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke briefly by phone with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, U.S. officials said.

A woman in central Tehran told The Wall Street Journal that she woke to the sound of continuous explosions Saturday. “My heart is jumping out of my chest,” she said. Iranian air defence authorities said their systems were firing in three locations around the capital.

Iran struck Israel on Oct. 1 to avenge the killings of the Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, and the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in Beirut, launching about 180 ballistic missiles. In recent conversations with Arab governments, Iran’s foreign minister said his country doesn’t want a wider war and suggested Tehran could absorb an Israeli retaliatory strike without escalating if it targeted military sites rather than sensitive oil or nuclear facilities, Arab officials said.

The strikes and threats marked the latest expansion of the fighting that began a year ago in Gaza, sparked by last year’s Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel that left 1,200 dead. Israel and Iran, after fighting a long war through proxies, have now exchanged fire directly twice this year.

Israel has also launched a major campaign in Lebanon, sending troops into the country and carrying out more than 3,000 air strikes in the past month. Fighting has escalated in Gaza with a major Israeli operation in the northern part of the enclave, while Iran-linked militias in Yemen and Iraq continue to strike at Israel, the U.S., and shipping near the Red Sea.

The violence has spread markedly in the region since Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time ever in April, sending more than 300 drones and missiles in a barrage that was largely shot down by Israel and its allies. Israel replied with a pinpoint strike on an air defence radar site in Iran.

Iran’s most recent strike at the start of this month, like the earlier one in April, was aimed at military and security facilities and did little damage. U.S. warships helped shoot down several of the ballistic missiles intended for Israel. Many missiles did get through Israel’s air defences, raising concern about the likely damage had they been targeted at population centres.

Netanyahu warned Iran at the time of the strike that it had made a “big mistake” and would pay for it.

Netanyahu and Gallant were in Israeli military headquarters in Tel Aviv overseeing the strikes from an underground bunker, the prime minister’s office said.

“The Gaza war has brought the Israel-Iran conflict out of the shadows,” Kaye said.

Dow Jones